Article by Guest Contributor: Joelle Westlund

Mystery in China (Image by: **Maurice**)

Emerging from the four preparatory rounds in Bonn, Germany and Tianjin, China, developing countries have reason to doubt the progress to be made at the COP16 conference in Cancun. In the meetings leading up to  the conference, China and the United States have already disclosed their predisposition towards agreements on the reduction of greenhouse gas admissions, resulting in an unfortunate deadlock.

The goals for developing countries in the upcoming climate conference in Cancun will be to solidify reduction targets made last year at Copenhagen through legally binding agreements that will confirm financial aid and technological assistance. The majority of developing countries have expressed a willingness to formalize their actions in accordance with the developed parties of the Kyoto protocol.

Developing countries set off from the climate change conference in Copenhagen with varying expectations and proposal including funding of $30 billion between 2010-2012 and $100 billion by 2020. As the world’s largest emerging economic with rapidly increasing carbon emissions, China, Brazil, India and South Africa have yet to see any of the funds to aid the deployment of clean energy, reducing deforestation emissions and other promises. As China’s representative Xie Zhenhua stated, developed countries like the U.S. “has not provided financing or technology to other countries, yet it asks them to accept stringent monitoring and voluntary domestic action. It’s totally outrageous. It’s quite unacceptable.” China does not stand alone. Many developing countries believe developed nations are making inequitable demands of developing nations in their attempt to evade taking the responsibilities of its own emissions and providing funding and necessary assistance for the technological advances for poor countries.

Though absent of a legally binding document, COP15 established emissions reduction proposals that promised funding to Least Developed Countries (LDC) that accounted for 1.5% of their GDP for the long-term financing with the consensus that the global average temperatures should not increase by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. So far, China and other developing countries have denounced the list of objectives laid out for Cancun, characterizing them as premature and unbalanced. Furthermore, despite the progress made in Tianjin over issues of forestry, technology transfer and financing, discussions on the crucial topics of emissions reductions were obstructed.

Poorer nations are reluctant to have their pledges mixed with those of richer nations, particularly given the political uncertainty about the ability of the U.S. to achieve its goals. UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, however, has said that the recent talks have laid an important foundation for agreements in Cancun despite the challenges already faced between the U.S. and China. Other developing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Papua New Guinea are also showing an unwillingness to push forward with progress on important issues such as deforestation.

Evidently, developing countries are showing great hesitation and inflexibility. The conflict over matters of finance, emissions reductions, and the viability of future climate change proposals will depend heavily on the willingness of the developing countries to find a common ground for which to anchor their objectives. The discourse between the United States and China, thus far, signify the possibility for dialogue to take the form of a tit-for-tat means of negotiating. The ramifications of such postures in the preliminary rounds of agreement may denote the clouding of prospects for substantial progress in Mexico.

Article by Guest Contributor: Colleen Marie Gibson

Determined to find an environmentally-friendly way to travel to the COP16/CMP6 Conference in Cancun, Mexico, Climatico sent three analysts sailing as crew for the Annual Baja Ha-Ha Regatta from San Diego to Cabo San Lucas. This sailboat race is part of the annual migration of sailboats and sailors from the U.S. West Coast down to the South of Mexico and beyond for the winter season. With a sense of adventure, economic efficiency, and a desire to reduce their carbon footprint, the Climatico Team joined 199 sailboats in San Diego bound for Mexico on October 25, 2010.

Crewing on three different sailboats, including a continuation on from Cabo San Lucas to Puerto Los Cabos and onto Mazatlan, Climatico sailed over 1000 nautical miles over the course of 3 weeks.

While Climatico’s team of analysts sought to maintain a green passage, Climatico unfortunately did not skipper its own boat, leaving the responsibility for sustainability up to the skipper in charge of the vessel.

The first boat of the journey was a 36’ Catalina which contained a wind turbine and solar panel. The majority of the travel on this boat was wind-powered and seemed like a promising opportunity for a green ride. Unfortunately, the captain also held little regard for the natural environment and his seemingly green practices ultimately stemmed from a sense of frugality. As soon as the boat traveled into Mexican waters, the captain began to toss all garbage except plastic over the side of the boat to reduce onboard waste as well as opened the pumps to release unfiltered sewage into the ocean.  While this sewage dumping falls within the limits of the law in the State of California (there, a ship legally has to be 3 miles offshore to dump its sewage directly into the ocean, according to the Independent), this practice was shocking to its green crew onboard the vessel.

Most of the ships sailing the Baja Ha-Ha have holding tanks and could safely hold the sewage on their vessel until they pull into a port where they could use a pump out station.  However, the dirty practice of waste-dumping is relatively common when permitted within the limits of the law due to convenience and the reduction of odor onboard. And, while glass, cardboard, and human waste ultimately break down in our oceans, high boat traffic (and worse, cruise ships) can lead to a toxic situation for the natural habitat and nearby communities as well as foul swimming conditions.

The second (53’ Amel Mango) and third (45’ Hallberg-Rassy) boats in the analysts’ adventure held much friendlier practices when it came to waste-management due to desalinating water makers on board and recycle-friendly captains. However, these much larger boats also motored more frequently than the 36’ Catalina and their water makers required increased power usage.

The Climatico team did not conduct an analysis of the carbon footprint of each sailboat in their adventure and they certainly objected to the dirty sailing practices. However, ultimately, without control of the boat, you have to live under the rules of the skipper or risk desertion.

Sailing purists will find that a sailboat can be an extremely green form of travel if you have the time to wait for the winds to come. And, even if forced to motor or motor-sail, solar panels and wind turbines can lengthen the battery life and reduce the need to recharge while away at sea for extended periods. Climatico’s analysts ultimately experienced each end of the spectrum in their travel, and, while their carbon footprint may not have been zero, this journey gave them a chance to better understand an enjoyable form of sustainable travel.

Article by Guest Contributor: Adalberto Maluf

The fourth meeting of the BASIC country ministers (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) on climate change took place in Rio de Janeiro on the 25th and 26th of July 2010 to further discuss their common positions regarding the Copenhagen Accord.

The BASIC countries were part of the final agreement reached in Copenhagen, although, officially, they left the conference “frustrated” with the final results. The joint statement after these two days of meeting in Rio “reiterated the importance of the two pronged approach – Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments by Annex I Parties” as crucial for an “equitable and balanced outcome in Cancun”.

The joint statement also shares concerns about those sensitive issues for the developing countries regarding differential (historical) responsibility between developing and developed countries, which is related to “equitable burden sharing” of past emissions within an context of sustainable development and also “demands the implementation of ambitious financing, technological support and capacity building.”

Despite the fact that the official joint statement didn’t differ much from what these countries have formally agreed in Copenhagen, there were some advances in Rio which can’t be underestimated. Overcoming Brazilian initial opposition, they all agree to develop a common methodology to assess their total emissions. The group, led by China’s chief climate negotiator, also agreed to have a “panel of experts” which would be responsible to establish a common baseline that could be equally measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV methodology). Brazil opposed it but didn’t block the initiative.

It could be the starting point for the development of a common methodology to assess and measure the real implications of their pledges for the economic and social development of these key countries. It’s a direct response of the Chinese government to the agreement made in the last hours of the Copenhagen conference between President Obama and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, with the intermediation of India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Brazilian President Lula da Silva.

There is a common feeling inside the BASIC countries that the Kyoto protocol won’t prevail in the near future, which could mean that they would have to change their positions for future negotiations. India insisted that it is rather clear that the Kyoto protocol is no longer a feasible route. With that in mind, they should all work together towards a single, inclusive climate change agreement.

The BASIC countries are still awaiting further developments around the world before moving forward with their pledges, however, there was a common understanding that developing countries with advanced economies, like Brazil and China, would have to abandon their rhetorical demand and start discussing ways to push concrete proposals in the table. The decision on a common methodology for MRV could be the beginning of that change.

As the 32^nd session of the UNFCCC Convention subsidiary body gets underway at the Hotel Maritim in Bonn, many will be hoping the talks can deliver some measure of mediation between parties and begin carving a real path towards Cancun. Outgoing Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Yvo de Boer, had urged all Parties to ‘overcome differences and work for greater clarity on what can be agreed to by all Parties for Cancun in December.’  The UN’s top climate change official, who will be replaced by Christiana Figueres from Costa Rica after the Bonn meeting, has promoted negotiators to gain finality on the architecture that will launch inclusive and effective global climate action. In an attempt to prevent deadlock in the talks, as witnessed at Copenhagen, do Boer has focused specifically on the need to conclude on “mitigation targets and action, a package on adaptation, a new technology mechanism, financial arrangements, ways to deal with deforestation and a capacity building framework”.

Making allies rather than enemies will be crucial if the talks at Bonn are to proceed. A strong coalition is the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), supported by more than 100 Parties, has already asserted it will not shift from its position centred on mitigating global temperatures to a 1.5 degree rise above pre-industrial levels to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations below 350ppm. Grenada, on behalf of AOSIS, has already affirmed that this goal must be reflected in the draft negotiating text. These small island states, some of the most vulnerable to continued climatic change and associated implications such as sea level rise, have been resolute in their demands that pledges of 2°C will not be sufficient.

It is expected the US will be an important voice with their negotiating team having already flagged to the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long Term Co-operative Action (AWG-LCA), one of the two subsidiary bodies of the UNFCCC, that it does not recognise the current text proposed as a basis for negotiations. Although the Copenhagen Accord was not formally adopted by the Conference of the Parties, 120 of the 194 UNFCCC parties have signed the Accord, consequently countries like the US are pushing for the Accord to progress under the Convention. The official position of the Secretariat coming into the Bonn meeting was the fact the Accord can be used as part of the negotiation process. This has come under fire from India and China, countries pivotal to the negotiations, citing that the talks should be based on the existing UN tracks namely the Kyoto Protocol and Long Term Cooperative Action (LCA). The task at Bonn is to try and find a medium between these and come up with a new draft that adequately integrates the Accord as well as the existing tracks.

Financing mechanism will also be high on the agenda, with the 26 developed countries that drew up the Copenhagen Accord pushing for the establishment of a Green Climate Change Fund. The Fund, proposed as one financial entity of the Convention supports projects and policies relating to mitigation for example REDD plus as well as adaptation projects through support, capacity building and technology transfer. A priority for the Bonn talks will be to shape how the US$30 billion pledged by industrialised countries at Copenhagen can be utilised in the near term (up until 2010) to kick-start climate action in developing countries. Issues of contention include the governance and leadership of the Fund, currently suggested to be under a board nominated by the Conference of the Parties, however many developing countries are hesitant with this notion. It is essential this promise of funding is met, and a clear road ahead until 2012 is made to regain some trust between the developed and developing nation negotiation blocks. It is essential a transparent and agreed upon methodology is employed to prioritise the most vulnerable countries and appropriately apportion financing through the Fund in this manner.

The UN climate change body has come up with a new draft which has elements of the Copenhagen Accord as alternative options for the nations to agree.  The Chair of the LCA group will be hoping to bridge these contrasting views, especially mediating talks between the small island states, China and India and the developed nation block. An indicative roadmap has already been proposed to guide the road to Cancun in December, however major speed bumps include issues related to mitigation, finance, measurement, reporting and verification. The greatest block is the global temperature targets and according emission limits, and negotiators at Bonn will have to grapple between either committing to deep cuts in the near term or setting up a longer term more ambitious global reduction plan.

Top priority on the agenda is the preparation of an outcome from the Bonn talks which can be to be presented to the Conference of the Parties in Cancun for adoption to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention. In addition developing countries will be focusing on the need for cooperative action now, up to and beyond 2012, especially with regards to clarity on the future of the Kyoto Protocol. The crux is again likely to occur with the US wanting a legally binding agreement for all relevant parties, especially China, the greatest emitter of CO₂ with the developing countries likely to reiterate their stance on historical responsibility.

The two week Bonn session represents a significant portion of the remaining negotiating time before Cancun and therefore priority needs to be on finalising the architecture around the fast-track funding and ensuring funds can be efficiently and equitably distributed as laid on in the Accord. In addition do Boer needs to try and align political leadership and iron out political instabilities to try and ensure Figueres can captain and floating ship to Cancun. Almost all the Parties agree there is an urgent need to conclude a legally binding agreement, therefore the Bonn talks need to ensure a comprehensive implementation package is making its way to the table.

Climatico analysts will be following the progression of the meeting through daily updates as well as a concluding analysis.