The government’s chief scientific adviser, Professor John Beddington has warned that:
The issue of food and energy security rose high on the political agenda last year during a spike in oil and commodity prices. According to the FAO, a further 40 million people were forced into hunger in December 2008, primarily due to higher food prices, which brings the overall number of undernourished people in the world to 963 million, compared to 923 million in 2007. The ongoing financial and economic crisis could tip even more people into hunger and poverty.
Future predictions suggest that demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion. As prices for staple crops continue to rise (rice, maize and wheat) these price increases will be sustained by rising population growth in developing economies.
“We head into a perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on the same time frame, and if we don’t address this, we can expect major destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially significant problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid food and water shortages” (Quote: Prof John Beddington)
Professor John Beddington was appointed as Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA) on 1 January 2008, was previously awarded the Heidelberg Award for Environmental Excellence (June 1997). His views are supported by the United Nations Environment Programme which predicts widespread water shortages across Africa, Europe and Asia by 2025.
Climate change would lead to pressure on food supplies because of decreased rainfall in many areas and crop failures related to climate; thus according to the UN ”The agriculture industry needs to double its food production, using less water than today.”
Future predictions to fund Biofuel production over the next 15 years, an extra 30bn gallons in the US alone and the EU has a target for biofuels to make up 5.75% of transport fuels by 2010; Beddington comments at the Sustainable Development UK Conference in Westminster 2009:
“It is very hard to imagine how we can see a world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous increase in the demand for food which is quite properly going to happen as we alleviate poverty.” (Quote: Prof John Beddington)
Perhaps improving agricultural productivity is one way to tackle the problem, but at present, 30-40% of all crops are lost due to pest and disease before they are harvested (Beddington), so we need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures.
It has also been suggested that genetically-modified food i.e. plants that are resistant to drought- a mixture of genetic modification and conventional plant breeding offer a solution, but this too is dependent on better water storage and cleaner energy supplies. Others state that the uses of GM crops are simply unsafe.
The impact on the UK will be higher food prices and increased fuel poverty, but here in the UK Beddington is currently Chair of a new Cabinet Office task force set up to tackle food security.
What are your views on what the UK can do to better prepare for this ‘future scarcity storm’?
