Following five weeks of intense negotiations between the Rudd government and the Opposition, the Australian Senate voted once more, by 41 to 33, against bills that would have established the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS). The Greens, Independent Senator Nick Xenophon, and Family First Senator Steve Fielding joined the Opposition (Liberals + Nationals) in voting down the scheme (SMH 02/12/09).

 The Minerals Council of Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the rejection, while WWF and the Climate Institute, called for a double dissolution and joint sitting of Parliament to get the original bills through (SMH 04/12/09).

 Under Australia’s bicameral parliamentary system, both houses must reach majority agreement on proposed legislation before it can go forward into law. Following a vote against a bill it may, however, subsequently be revived or presented again. That is what happened this autumn following a first rejection of the CPRS by the Australian Senate in August (see my previous post). The legislation had been put on the table again by the government in November, passing without surprise the House of Representative on the 17^th.

 The Senate no vote came after an extraordinary few weeks of drama, in which the Opposition reached a deal to support the legislation with big changes, and then reneged after its change of leadership. Indeed, on Monday, former Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull (who was backing the passage of the Australian ETS) was challenged within its own party, and was ousted as Liberal party leader by right-wing climate skeptic Tony Abbott. The new Liberal leader, who has been portraying the scheme as Kevin Rudd’s “big new tax”, managed to convince most Liberal Senators who would have supported the CPRS to vote down the scheme (except for two who crossed to floor).

 Mr Abbott insists that he will have a credible climate change policy but is making it clear that his policy will not include an emissions trading scheme any time soon. In particular, he said it would be “folly” for Australia to establish an emissions trading scheme before the United States had settled on its model: “The right time for an emissions trading scheme is when the rest of the world is signed up for one.” (ABC 02/10/09). Abbott plans to fight a climate change election using land management and energy efficiency measures instead of an ETS, and would welcome a debate on nuclear power as an option.

 Despite the fact that Prime minister Rudd now has the option to call for a double dissolution election, which he would without a doubt win, he has played down prospects of pulling this trigger. The government has said that in the next Parliamentary sitting period commencing on 2 February 2010, it will introduce bills to establish the CPRS, inclusive of amendments incorporated following negotiations with the Opposition announced on 24 November 2009, to give Parliament a further opportunity to consider and pass legislation. Hopes to portray Australia as a world leader on the issue have now vanished, putting Kevin Rudd in an incomfortable position as a friend of the chair in Copenhagen next week.

After the Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme’s defeat in Senate last August, the Australian Opposition, the Coalition (Liberals + Nationals), had until last Sunday to propose amendments before the reintroduction of the bill in November (for previous developments, see here). After a Party meeting lasting more than four hours yesterday, Mr. Turnbull, the Opposition leader, confirmed the partyroom had endorsed his strategy, backing “commonsense amendments” which, if agreed to, “would save thousands of Australian jobs”(The Australian 19/10/09).

Most provisions intend to provide greater exemptions to key industries. Amendments include exemptions for the coal industry, greater assistance to power generators, a permanent exemption for agriculture, greater exemptions for energy intensive industries, and protection for food processing. The detailed list is available on the Liberals’ website. The Coalition won early support for its position last night, with the Minerals Council of Australia backing its amendments. “The proposed amendments will better align the CPRS with other emissions trading schemes around the world, promote investment in low-emissions technologies and provide the necessary flexibility to adjust to the outcome of the United Nations climate change talks in Copenhagen in December,” chief executive officer Mitchell Hooke said. (SMH 20/10/09)

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, set a six-week timetable for negotiation and debate before a vote in November. The bill will be introduced to the House of Representatives this week, and should reach the Senate by mid-November. The government will push very hard for the passage of the bill by Copenhagen and may extend Senate sittings if necessary (SMH 18/10/09). However, the Nationals and some key Liberals strongly oppose the ETS, and threaten to cross the floor if Mr. Turnbull strikes a deal with the government. The legislation might still pass under this scenario, but Mr. Turnbull will face the embarrassment of a Coalition split on the issue just weeks after declaring he would stake his leadership on success.

The Australian domestic climate surrounding the emission trading scheme issue contrasts with the confidence and dynamism demonstrated by Labour Prime minister Kevin Rudd in multilateral talks. Mr Rudd was in New York late September to advance international negotiations on strategies to cut greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the December Copenhagen summit. He met Bill Clinton to discuss climate change and positioned Australia as a middle-power honest broker that can help smooth the way between the two superpowers, the US and China, which hold the key to a successful agreement in Copenhagen. Discussing tactics with UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon, the latter asked Mr Rudd to chair a meeting at the climate talks – a significant role which recognises the contribution Australia has made so far to the global effort to strike a deal (SMH 21/09/09).

Nevertheless, back home, the Opposition (the Coalition of Liberals and Nationals), is trying to delay as much as possible the adoption of ETS legislation. As previously explained on this blog here and here, Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) was defeated by the Senate in August. The legislation is due to be reintroduced in Parliament in November and the Opposition had been given until October 19th to present amendments.

But the Opposition leader, the Liberal Malcom Turnbull, is struggling to control the disunity among Coalition members. Increasing the pressure on their leader, many Coalition MPs are urging not to cut a deal with the government before the December meeting in Copenhagen. The Coalition argues that there might not be time to debate the legislation before the end of this parliamentary year. But in reality, it wants to wait and see what other countries will commit to. During a shadow cabinet meeting held last week, tactics were discussed and Turnbull desperately tried to unify his colleagues in favour of negotiations with the government. But opponents like Senator Mason have been arguing that to pass climate legislation before Copenhagen would “risk Australian jobs and Australia’s standard of living for negligible environmental benefit” (CourrierMail 06/10/09). Some Opposition members have charged that the rationale of the shadow cabinet for backing a pre-Copenhagen climate deal was to “avoid a double dissolution election” and the possibility of a flawed emissions trading scheme passing at a joint Parliamentary sitting (CourrierMail 06/10/09).

Mr Turnbull might actually be right to fear an election since his party has just taken another hit in the poll, the government leading by 16 points. Turnbull is now calling for a special meeting on October 18th, and hopes to get an agreement on proposed amendments to the CPRS legislation (ABC 06/10/09). Now that he has officially canvassed a split with the Nationals, who have said they will not agree to any deal with the Government over the scheme, Mr Turnbull must reduce chances of potential unrest among its own party when Parliament will resume on October 19th.

Al Gore, former U.S. Vice President and climate change campaigner, was in Melbourne on Monday for the launch of the new think tank Safe Climate Australia and to help train 300 people from 19 nations to address and encourage their leaders on the issue of climate change. Gore’s visit also coincides with Australia’s first ever Youth Climate Summit which hopes to mobilize a new generation of climate change activists. Speaking before a group of 1,000 Australian business leaders, Gore praised the Rudd government for pushing forward with emissions trading legislation ahead of the climate change conference held in Copenhagen this December.

Safe Climate Australia is a new environmental think tank composed of scientists, business and civic leaders and is modeled on a similar project in the United States called Repower America. The group demands that emergency action must be taken in order to address global warming and plans to help Australia move away from emissions-heavy coal towards a zero-carbon economy. Gore stated that the mounting environmental challenges in the world require immediate action.

According to the SCA organizer, Brendan Condon, the SCA hopes to develop a blueprint for the transition of all major sectors of the Australian economy to net zero carbon with a draft expected in 12 months.”This is a massive body of work that will include collating all relevant scientific research, developing systems architecture, scenario planning, emission reduction and sequestration strategies.”

While Gore praised the work of Rudd and the progress that the United States and Australia have made toward making climate change a higher priority, Gore mentioned that he would have written stronger emissions targets than currently proposed in Australia’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) bill. “It’s not what I would have written, I would have written it as a stronger bill, but I’m realistic about what can be accomplished in the political system as it is,” Gore said.

Rudd’s proposed legislation has also been attacked by green groups who claim that the emissions targets are too weak. Currently, the emissions trading legislation commits to an emissions reduction target of 60% by 2050 and interim targets of between 5-25% by 2020. Rudd hopes to push the trading bill through parliament in August, four months ahead of the Copenhagen conference.

While Prime Minister Rudd’s legislation has come under fire, Gore still remains encouraged by the progress made by the Rudd government. “I am sincerely convinced that the right way forward is to get to the maximum that the political system will allow us to accomplish and begin the change, and then, as we gain experience with it, toughen it, strengthen it, make it better based on experience as business and industry learn how to adjust.”

Scientists warn that Australia can be vulnerable to damage caused by warming temperatures such as more severe storms and droughts as well as rising sea levels. Gore sited the record temperatures and brutal wildfires this past February in parts of Victoria that took the lives of 173 people as evidence that the planet has a “fever” brought on by climate change. “The odds have been shifted so heavily that fires that used to be manageable now threaten to spin out of control and wreak damages that are far beyond what was experienced in the past. This crisis is gaining momentum and the reason why is not that complicated.”

At the climate change talks in Copenhagen later this year, governments will meet in order to negotiate an international environmental agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012. While an agreement between leaders will be difficult, Gore remains optimistic. Gore stated before reporters, “One of the barriers in the Kyoto process was that the United States and Australia did not provide the kind of leadership necessary…Now with new leadership in both the United States and Australia our two countries are providing leadership. When that leadership is most needed is in the run up to Copenhagen, it can make a huge difference.” One of Rudd’s first acts as Australian Prime Minister was to sign Australia on to the Kyoto Protocol and both Australia and the United States have been active in the negotiation process leading up to Copenhagen in December.

South Australia (SA) has reaffirmed its leadership in a move to a low carbon economy, announcing an ambitious 33% renewable electricity target for 2020.  The target is matched with a A$20m Renewable Energy Fund to encourage investments and uptake, booting the renewable energy sector.

This builds upon the federal target, which saw the Rudd government asking each state to reach 20% of renewable electricity generation by 2020.  Mike Rann, Premier of SA and Minister for Climate Change & Economic Development, added that

“We had a much more ambitious target in South Australia to reach that 20% by 2014. We are going to reach our target ahead of our 2014 deadline, and years ahead of the national deadline.

“So we’re now announcing an even tougher target of 33 per cent by 2020 which will keep us at the forefront internationally of jurisdictions supporting renewable energy.”

According to Rann, South Australia is home to 56% of the nation’s wind power, 90% of its geothermal investment and nearly 30% of its grid-connected domestic solar systems – by far the highest in Australia. The first project to be funded from the Renewable Energy Fund will be the South Australian Centre of Excellence for Geothermal Research at the University of Adelaide, which will receive A$1.6m over two years.

If the 33% target is met, South Australia will not only be a global leader, but will also produce 3 times as much energy as it consumes, potentially exporting clean energy to Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. Whilst Premier Mike Rann is hoping that other states may follow this admirable lead, the details of a federal target will shed more light on what this might mean for other states. Barry Brook highlights that SA may burden most of the nation’s load if it is agreed that a national target can be achieved across any state. However, if each state is assigned an individual target or quota, SA’s leadership position will triumph, strengthening a new industry, which promotes economic development and creates green jobs in difficult economic times.

The news comes just days after Rudd’s announcement that Australia is the only developed nation in the world that is not in a recession; and SA is one of the benefitting states.  A strong focus on sustainable development, renewable energy and alternative fuels has sparked a successful economic development story amongst countless doom and gloom reports of budget cuts and set backs in the face of the global financial crisis. In a recent TV interview, Lord Stern stressed the need for stronger leadership from Australia on the climate change agenda in the run up to Copenhagen – whether the federal government will strengthen its position on climate change remains to be seen, but for now, South Australia is leading the way.