The G8 Research Group has invited Climatico to speak at a press conference at 12:00 on Friday 10 July 2009 in Press Room 3 of the G8 Summit in L’Aquila, Italy.  Accredited journalists should assemble at the Pool Meeting Point at 11:45.

Those hoping the G8 would achieve a breakthrough in Climate negotiations, would only need to look at the history of the G8 to know it is often more like an extended press conference for the G8 countries to touch base and put out some symbolic gestures on the issue of the day, meanwhile the real negotiations are happening behind the scenes round the clock all year long.

But in terms of gestures what was achieved?

That the G8 countries aim to keep global emissions low enough to avoid a 2C rise in temperature

That it should aim to cut 80% of emissions by 2050, and the world aim for 50% cuts.

Neither stands out as groundbreaking, and worse for environmentalists was that several measures discussed appeared to fall by the way side: Mexico proposed a “green fund” for developing countries, something floated by Brown prior the G8 meeting and worse still developing countries are of the opinion that only a 40% cut by 2020 by developed countries could get them to make serious cuts.

Nevertheless, The G8 has not been a failure and in fact is another albeit small stepping stone for an event which garners far too much publicity for what actually goes on. While the developed countries proposed cuts against those demanded by developing countries may make negotiations appear at an impasse, in reality, a solution is probably not so far off.

Three factors, discussed could make a breakthrough:

The first is the role of a “Green fund”, developing countries protest that the G8 make deeper cuts because they are responsible historically for emissions but more importantly because their people are already more prosperous. If a significant ‘green fund’ was made available, it could have the dual role of aiding development and doing so sustainably. This could also take the form of technology transfer, in combination with funding, which remains a critical road block to developing countries supporting environmental energy options.

The second is the Waxman-Markey bill currently being debated in the US senate, this needs to pass with a credible amount of its original intention left intact, if it does, that paves the way for further North American legislation ( with Canada and possibly Mexico in some role), perhaps more importantly it gives the US genuine clout to lead.

The third and most important factor lies with US negotiations with China, Russia and Brazil. Already the US has persuaded China to come to the table, as well as reticent Russia. Although importance should also be attached to the role of Brazil, India and Indonesia, is is these two countries, the next most powerful of non-western countries that could make or break global negotiations. I

The US has its work cut out; continued behind the scenes work will be the modus operandi in the run up to Copenhagen. However all policy relies on momentum, a global deal even a disappointing one, changes the domestic policy debates for the better, this could create a positive interchanging momentum that increasingly reaches for greater efforts to cut emissions globally.

… but doesn’t agree on when to turn down the heat. This is Oxfam’s resumé on the freshly released G8 climate change communiqué. Leaders could not improve on last year’s commitment of “a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050”. They did however agree that to reach such a global reduction, developed countries will have to reduce their emissions by 80% by 2050. There was no agreement on a specific year as a baseline, and the final wording – “compared to 1990 or more recent years” – reflects the disagreement between the EU who pushed for a 1990 baseline and the USA and Japan who want future emissions to be compared to a more recent reference year.

As hoped and expected, it was agreed, however, that “the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2°C.” This is the first time that the US has officially agreed to such a target, something that would have been unimaginable under George W. Bush. The Canadians were opposed to this statement earlier this week, but after long negotiations and NGO campaigns from the likes of Avaaz, Canada accepted the language.

Like last year, no interim goal has been agreed on, though the EU’s push for a 2020 goal is reflected in the statement that a 50% reduction by 2050 “implies that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible and decline thereafter”. This lack of an interim target does not sit well with a 2°C target as Kim Carstensen, leader of the WWF Global Climate Initiative, puts it: “What are [world leaders] going to do between now and 2020? If they don’t outline a path to reach the announced goal, the 2 degree statement will just join a long list of broken promises.”

In the short term, they will be working on their economic recovery. The deterioration of the economic climate is noticeable throughout the document. Yet, positively, the trend to “green” individual stimulus packages (at least rhetorically) has been picked up in the communiqué: “We must seize the opportunity to build on synergies between actions to combat climate change and economic recovery initiatives, and encourage growth and sustainable development worldwide.”

For those interested in adaptation and forestry, the document seems to have something on offer.  The document mentions the “possible security implications of the adverse impact of climate change and the potential for increased conflicts over scarcer resources.” It goes on to discuss not only deforestation but also land degradation and the importance of biodiversity.

The bottom line is that apart from the lack of interim targets, most NGOs and other observers agree that the communique is adequate. Or as John Kirton, of the G8 Research Group, put it – “It met my standards.”

The G8 leaders will now take this communique to the Major Economies Forum tomorrow.  There Obama will chair a difficult meeting in which he will attempt to reverse China and India’s longstanding opposition to adopting quantitative emissions targets.

By Ruth Brandt, Niel Bowerman and Marie Karaisl

Welcome to our climate policy liveblog.  This is a live feed from our twitter account @_climatico_

8:59:08 PM: Our Italian #G8 hosts have banned access to Twitter from the Summit so you can access out full liveblog from http://www.climaticoanalysis.org

8:59:39 PM: Reuters have a good summary of where the #MEM is on the climate communique. http://is.gd/1ql1E

9:04:36 PM: The Major Economies Meeting (MEM) has in fact now been renamed to the Major Economies Forum (MEF).

9:08:48 PM: The #MEF met in Rome today in an attempt to break the deadlock on a commitment to half global emissions by 2050.

9:33:20 PM: India remains opposed to adopting an emissions target. Thus the #MEF may focus on committing to prevent a temperature rise of more than 2C

9:40:22 PM: Avaaz are currently organising a mass action and campaign asking Japan, Canada and Russia to sign up to the 2C target. http://bit.ly/32Bj8

9:44:39 PM: Updated: @avaaz now say that Harper is leading the opposition against the 2C commitment

9:46:25 PM: The Summit itself has been a bit of a shambles thus far with internet not working in the media centre for most of today

9:54:04 PM: Washington has even been organising Italy’s “Sherpa calls” in an attempt to ‘inject purpose into the meeting.’ http://is.gd/1qosD

9:59:10 PM: Obama will also be chairing the climate change negotiation on Thursday, which the UN and Denmark (COP15 hosts) will also be invited to

10:00:27 PM: http://is.gd/1qoQE

10:04:10 PM: That’s a rather interesting article that we’ve been discussing here at the G8 Research Group. Why do you think it was leaked?  I’ll discuss our theories here tomorrow.  Good night for now and see you tomorrow when the Summit begins.

This week WWF-Allianz released their annual scorecard in advance of the G8 negotiations in L’Aquila. Canada came 8^th, under-performing both Russia and perhaps more embarrassingly, the US. The report cited increased efforts by the US such as Obama placing high priority on stopping climate change, and Russia’s recent moves to come to the negotiating table as an example of how Canada was now the bottom placed country.

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