The UNFCCC conference in Poland begins tomorrow (Monday 1st December 2008). The size and complexity of the event means that almost all topics in international climate politics will be covered, with extensive discussions on the road to Copenhagen in 2009.
However, as well as building momentum and tackling the timetabling for 2009, the Poznan conference itself is likely to see at least some key developments. In week 1:
1. 14.00-14.30 on Monday 1st: a press conference hosted by the delegation of the USA. While the transition team in the USA is not officially sending a delegation to Poznan, this conference will undoubtedly be driven by questions about future USA policy in 2009. (Note. we understand that delegates from the Obama team will be in the Poznan complex in an unofficial capacity).
2. AM on Tuesday 2nd: discussion about compliance with Kyoto, including a discussion about reporting of emissions data and the mechanisms for compliance. Given the widespread critique of the Kyoto Protocol’s actual effectiveness, this discussion will be key in determining what is taken forward into the Copenhagen Protocol and what is left behind.
3. Lunchtime on Wednesday 3rd: discussion of the cooperation mechanisms between countries. CDM, JI, and Adaptation are all on the agenda for discussion. Of particular interest is the UNFCCC lunch to discuss the methods and techniques through which the CDM functions. The complexity in CDM has been the source of much debate in policy fora in 2008.
4. AM on Thursday 4th: the first of the thorny discussions on emission reduction commitments. One of the groups established under the Bali Road Map will consider with country delegations “further commitments by Annex I Parties”
Judging by previous experience, the first events in Act 1 of the Poznan theatre set the scene for the high-level delegation discussions in Poznan: Act 2. However, because of the interim nature of this conference it is likely that these meetings will go quite some way to setting the scene for much of the discussion right through to the finale next year.
Climatico will have three analysts in Poznan week 2, reporting directly to this blog. Contact them at info[at]climaticoanalysis.org