Africa is set to be one of the most afflicted continents from the impacts of climate change. Compounding Africa’s fragile economic basis to deal with the consequences is the impact the global economic recession is having. The continent is set to lose $40 billion in 2009 as a result of stagnated growth, which continues to plummet as the crisis takes hold. The impacts of these loses are huge for the poorest of the poor living in the continent – equivalent to two weeks income for each of Africa’s 900 million people. The impacts of the crisis are wide and varying from crashing copper prices in Zambia to reduced tourism in Kenya.

It is crucial South Africa takes a purposeful and strong stance at the G20 summit due to the huge vulnerability of many African countries, however many debate the leverage it will have. The vulnerabilities are greatest within the most dependent nations especially those with weak budgets and Balance of Payments. It is essential South Africa is able to effectively highlight these needs at the G20 discussions as capital is desperately required, a trade deal must be secured and the Millennium Development Goals and their failures must be dealt with and reassessed. A huge challenge, considering the $30 billion shortfall in donations for the 2010 aid budgets. If there is no money pledged to the financial losses Africa will suffer in 2009, climate policy has no chance of entering in many national policy discourses across the continent despite the afflictions it will cause.

Both Britain and the Obama administration have promised action on Africa however the significance of the recession, existing Middle East conflicts and the need for a global climate deal with clock ticking towards Copenhagen may result in Africa’s woes being sidelined. South Africa needs to flag the importance of Africa in policy discussions, especially the potential for investment in line with Cap and Trade systems and a drive for energy efficiency, which has not been prevalent in most African nations. Nigeria for example as huge potential for solar investments with its climate yet the use of diesel generators is prevalent due to the dysfunctional state of the state run power grids. This highlights Africa’s inherent problem which the G20 discussions table is unlikely to make any impact on – huge potential that cannot be manifested due to corrupt and perfidious governance.

South Africa has a monumental responsibility at the G20 to attempt to prove to the world’s leading nations the role Africa can play in abating the recession and reestablishing the global economy. Potential lies in investments such as the huge potential for sustainable biofuels, appealing to many OECD nations in terms of energy security at low cost. If regulation allows economies like that of South Africa, the flagship for the continent, to be established many other nations will recognize the potential for investment funds in Africa’s emerging economies.

In order to capitalize on the discussions of the G20 South Africa needs to engage as determined leaders for the continent and display Africa’s readiness to be part of Obama’s ‘new foundation for prosperity.’ It needs to flag the issues of the budgetary hole in Africa’s account due to the recession and importantly Africa’s position in climate negotiations and the importance of strong policy in individual nation states. This is imperative, as the floods that are currently ravaging the Southern African drainage systems show the consequences climate change will have on the continent. Around 500,000 people have been affected with whole villages lost in Angola, Namibia and Zambia – further worsening the plight of vulnerable Africa citizens living on the edge of survival.

It is an imperative for South Africa to invest in renewable energy, a solution that could be both cost effective and necessary if the government is sincere in its efforts to abate climate change.  The target at present is 15% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2020, however this target has thus far been addressed by meagre investment commitments.

Government climate policy commitments are not being emulated by current investments, especially not by Eskom, South Africa’s sole energy provider. Eskom has launched a 343 billion rand ($34.40 billion) new power investment program, with includes two 4,800 MW coal-fired power plants due to be operational in 2015 and 2016. Further compromising the government’s commitments to emissions reductions is the fact that CCS discussions are not being actively engaged in by Eskom, especially in line with the economic enormity of these new investments.

Eskom’s promotion of coal as the cheapest and quickest method to add new megawatts to the grid, is primarily to compensate for the acute shortfalls in provision since early 2008.  However an increasing recognition of the carbon externality attached to coal production makes renewable energies the only sustainable option that will ultimately end up saving the government billions of Rand. 

There is consensus on the risks South Africa’s credibility faces if it the country doesn’t implement promised renewable obligations and mandatory emissions reductions.  One of the greatest risks is the imposition of trade barriers for ‘dirty’ exports, especially important as more governments become cognisant of the embodied emissions related to commodity imports and how these may potentially play into national cap and trade schemes.   

The Department of Minerals and Energy draft regulations fall under the Electricity Act 4 of 2006, and are for new generation capacity of all forms of energy by independent power producers, including coal, biodiesel, sun, wind, water and waste. Only nuclear energy is excluded.  Despite the regulations promoting competitive pricing there are conflicts with the energy regulator, NERSA, which has established policies to promote new, clean energy technologies through preferential tariffs.

In contrast to the government regulations, which many feel will undermine renewable energy investments, positive moves are being made towards the adoption of feed-in tariffs for renewable energy.  Following from successful adoption in countries like Germany, feed-in tariffs have proven their position in encouraging investment in renewable.  This is largely due to the absence of involvement by tenders; therefore investment in renewables can come from any investor, who is paid by the national regulator.

Investors and government critics enveloped in ‘Afropessimism’ need to shift discourse away from asinine discussion about coal and ideas such as importing electricity from the world’s largest proposed dam projects in the Congo.  Focus must be on these feed-in tariffs and internal small scale private sector investment to tap into South Africa’s ample renewable reserves such as an 1000MW wind potential. 

However the ideals of sustainable development, decreed in the Constitution and ingrained in policy makers, must feature prominently in renewable policy and propositions.  The counter argument with many proposals such as electrical generation from wind farms is their minimal employment promotion as well as issues of land ownership and an equitable share of profits from electricity production.  These hurdles are not insurmountable they just require interdisciplinary and shrewd policy making that is able to eclipse current political disarray and appreciate the enormity of potential renewable can play in a future ‘green’ South Africa.

The 2009 Climate Summit which closed on Friday was a giant step for South Africa in recognising the severity and implications of climate change, as well as bringing together key stakeholders in the climate policy discussion. Climate change received a much needed spotlight for the week, and President Kgalema Motlanthe utilised his speech to instil some optimism to the 893 delegates gathered, and endorse the need for ‘green growth.’ This is an imperative if government is seen to be serious in shifting South Africa’s position as the 14^th greatest emitter of global greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to 90% of electivity being derived from the countries ample coal reserves.

The summit was hailed by the Minister for Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, as creating ‘milestone’ steps towards comprehensive and effective climate policy. The engagement of business was also flagged by van Schalwyk as essential, especially in partnering with the government to create a low carbon economy.  However South Africa’s business sector’s grasp of the significance of their role in creating a low carbon economy is debatable. 

Van Schalkwyk utilised the summit to showcase the government’s commitment to emission reductions and its progression towards mandatory emissions reductions.  This has major implications on South Africa’s economy, largely based upon significant natural resource extraction and conversion, sectors that will face fundamental changes if and when mandatory regulations are implemented.

Creating this change in mind set in the business sector is a huge challenge. The Department for Environment Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) needs to remain dedicated and on course to implement mandatory emissions cuts.  DEAT will face strong and economically persuasive opposition from the private and public sectors who continue to advocate voluntary emissions reduction measures.  This coupling and relationship between business leaders and government policy discourse needs to be managed sensitively as the emissions cuts South Africa needs are going to be made through public and private innovation.  This innovation is needed to deploy suitable technologies to harness renewable energy; essential to achieve van Schalwyk’s vision of a low carbon economy.

A major stumbling block to the low carbon economy is the absence of policy frameworks promoting renewable energy and a lack of incentives for investors.  The summit was however successful in stressing the importance of renewable energy. Nelisiwe Magubane, Depurty Director General at the Department of Mineral Affairs and Energy, signalled the governments commitment to dealing with these pivotal hurdles commenting on the drafting of a feed-in tariff which aims to stimulate the large scale investment that is needed.

Shadowing the optimism of Van Schalwyk’s comments is a report released this week by Oxfam International and Earthlife Africa.  The report highlighted South Africa’s vulnerability due to the predominant arid and semi arid environments which will be extremely sensitive to the anticipated volatility in flood and drought conditions associated with climate change.  This is of particular consequence to subsistence and small scale agriculturalists.  In this respect the summit has indicated positive moves for climate policy – devolution to a provincial level so all stakeholders, especially those most afflicted can become involved in policy discourse. 

Climate policy discussions are complicated  and intertwined with South Africa’s convoluted history. Over four million households don’t use electricity to cook and two million households use candles as their primary lighting source. Over 70% of the rural households still utilise fuel wood and paraffin as fuel sources.  The government needs to take stock of these critical shortfalls in energy usage and capitalise on the existing 36 000MW of power generation capacity.  More importantly for the bigger picture, government must make intelligent decisions about South Africa’s future optimum energy mix; namely reforming its coal dependent energy sector.  As President Motlanthe fittingly commented at the close of the summit; ‘we owe it to the millions of people who will be directly affected by climate change’.

South Africa faces a myriad of challenges; an increasing and farcical rate of crime, political upheavals and tension in lieu of the forthcoming elections as well as the looming deadline and expectations of playing host to the FIFA 2010 soccer world cup with an expected 3 million visitors.  In amongst these, jostling for position are the fundaments South Africa must face – achieving racial equality, sustainable development and tackling climate change.

The climate commitments implemented by Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Marthinus van Schalkwyk to “stabilize” emissions by 2020 to 2025, “with absolute reductions in emission to begin ten years after growth was halted” will be tested this week in the National Climate Summit and Science Conference, being hosted in Midrand, close to South Africa’s largest cities Johannesburg between the 3^rd and 6^th of March.  Van Schalkwyk will be under pressure to ensure the results of the Long-Term Mitigation Scenario (LTMS) study and stated emission reductions obligations are translated into strategic options.  Expectations will focus on galvanising a clearer climate policy directive over the three day conference, in which key scientists and government officials will gather to discuss South Africa’ position with regard to Climate Change. 

Top priority for climate policy needs to be a refocus, and a move away from, South Africa’s historical consumption of cheap coal for electricity.  Options such as Carbon Capture and Storage technology need to be discussed at the National Conference as real and tangible options for future investment by Eskom, the national electricity service provider.  South Africa’s near total dependence on the large domestic coal reserves, as the primary energy resource are principally responsible for high per capita greenhouse emission, among the top five highest within developing countries

The conference proceedings need focus on renewable energy especially in line with the renewable energy white paper which sets a target of 10000GWh as a contribution to total energy consumption by 2013. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) has promoted feed in tariffs, set for a minimum of 15 years, that would be pegged at a level that would allow investors to recover the cost of generation, plus get a fair return on their investment.  These feed in tariffs are a contentious point for discussion as it is felt at present they are a major economic disincentive for renewable investment despite ample natural resources for hydro, wind and potential tidal and wave power.  Nersa’s suggestion of Eskom Distribution as the renewable energy purchasing agency have also been hotly contested, especially in light of Eskom’s gross failings in electrical production and supply in the last 18 months.

If anything positive can come out of the National Summit this week , it will be for the scientists to educate  the politicians on the grave consequences climate change will have for the country and the continent, and the integral role South Africa’s business and political leaders must play in implementing effective climate policy. However discussions are likely to stumble and falter with the mention of costs, for example the issue over compliance with Euro emission standards. South Africa is at level 2 and needs to more to Euro 4 by 2012, however the R40 billion estimated costs are protracting decision making and diverting from the real time issue of climate change. 

The summit proceedings need to also effectively bring to the table other options for South Africa’s future climate policy for example the potential for a carbon tax and the need to implement stringent energy efficiency measures.  However Climate policy discussions in South Africa are saddled under a nervous political regime which is set for a changeable year.  Therefore a policy approach that is able to balance increasing demands for energy and the pressing need for sustainable development and equity, especially in relation to climate change mitigation will remain the core challenge for van Schalkwyk and the government.