Fever is rising for Copenhagen, as delegates and key global players in the climate field descend on the Danish capital in readiness for the official opening of the 15th Conference of the Parties on Monday. Expectations have rollercoastered in the last few weeks, with negative sentiment peaking when it was plausible Obama would not attend and the key emitters, namely the USA, China and India were yet to stipulate plans regarding emissions reductions.

The recent email scandal from the Climate Research Unit based at the University of East Anglia and James Hansen, NASA’s head of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, vehemently stressing the talks ‘must fail’ will add further dent to expectations.  However pledges for emissions cuts, announced by the USA and China and the anticipation that India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh will today announce cuts in carbon intensity by 24 percent in 2020, bring hope. The cumulative result of these pledges is a positive signal that the COP could deliver a tangible structure for an agreement by the closing on December 19th.

One of the most contentious issues likely to dominate the discussions is the standoff between developing and developed countries, referred to as Annex 1 under the existing Kyoto Agreement. The key emerging emitters from the developing world, China, India, Brazil and South Africa have remained firm that developed countries must provide finance and technology to help developing nations fight global warming. This was further reaffirmed this week in Copenhagen, when the key negotiators from these four countries indicated after a preparatory meeting that they would represent a “different position” compared to a separate outline for the global climate talks by Denmark.

After a recent meeting in Beijing it also emerged that this group at Copenhagen will formally ask “developed countries to assume responsibility for emissions reduction targets in the second commitment period (from 2013)”. As Kim Carstensen, head of WWF’s Global Climate Initiative, further advocated “the developed world needs to have deeper emissions cuts, more new money on the table and much more willingness to share the technologies for low carbon development”. Developed nations are however adamant that this group of big emerging economies must also commit to mandatory emissions cuts.

Arguing aside, the fact remains that the world must cut its emissions, by around 80% of 1990 levels by 2050 if any form of climate stabilization is to be achieved.  Nonetheless discussions are likely to stumble and potentially get deadlocked over the issue of historical responsibility. This issue of ‘burden sharing’ is hugely sensitive as it ultimately involves responsibility to give money, billions of dollars of it, needed for low carbon investment and in adaptation funding, especially in key areas vulnerable to the onslaught of climate change.

Developing countries will not vacillate over the need for comprehensive adaptation funding, and will not compromise on the need for this to be in addition to official development assistance (ODA). The EU’s negotiators recent written blunder, referring that they “cannot accept reference to ‘additional to’, and ‘separate from’ ODA targets” could gravely undermine discussions on this issue.

In addition to the issue of funding, developing countries will be pressing for a firm agreement on Reduced Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation (REDD), where large swathes of land covered by forests of high biodiversity have the potential to earn countries money by keeping forests standing. However, as with many negotiations at Copenhagen, issues need to be ironed out with regards to the details.  A major hurdle for REDD is corruption and mismanagement in the forestry industry in developing countries. For example this costs Indonesia, which has one of the highest deforestation rates, two billion US dollars a year, equivalent to its entire health budget as a Human Rights Watch report released on Tuesday indicated. Many feel the negotiations surrounding REDD are fundamental if Copenhagen is to achieve anything, and will be hoping there is not a ‘no deal’ on this.

I will be traveling to Copenhagen for the second week of deliberations to cover issues related to developing countries.

Those hoping the G8 would achieve a breakthrough in Climate negotiations, would only need to look at the history of the G8 to know it is often more like an extended press conference for the G8 countries to touch base and put out some symbolic gestures on the issue of the day, meanwhile the real negotiations are happening behind the scenes round the clock all year long.

But in terms of gestures what was achieved?

That the G8 countries aim to keep global emissions low enough to avoid a 2C rise in temperature

That it should aim to cut 80% of emissions by 2050, and the world aim for 50% cuts.

Neither stands out as groundbreaking, and worse for environmentalists was that several measures discussed appeared to fall by the way side: Mexico proposed a “green fund” for developing countries, something floated by Brown prior the G8 meeting and worse still developing countries are of the opinion that only a 40% cut by 2020 by developed countries could get them to make serious cuts.

Nevertheless, The G8 has not been a failure and in fact is another albeit small stepping stone for an event which garners far too much publicity for what actually goes on. While the developed countries proposed cuts against those demanded by developing countries may make negotiations appear at an impasse, in reality, a solution is probably not so far off.

Three factors, discussed could make a breakthrough:

The first is the role of a “Green fund”, developing countries protest that the G8 make deeper cuts because they are responsible historically for emissions but more importantly because their people are already more prosperous. If a significant ‘green fund’ was made available, it could have the dual role of aiding development and doing so sustainably. This could also take the form of technology transfer, in combination with funding, which remains a critical road block to developing countries supporting environmental energy options.

The second is the Waxman-Markey bill currently being debated in the US senate, this needs to pass with a credible amount of its original intention left intact, if it does, that paves the way for further North American legislation ( with Canada and possibly Mexico in some role), perhaps more importantly it gives the US genuine clout to lead.

The third and most important factor lies with US negotiations with China, Russia and Brazil. Already the US has persuaded China to come to the table, as well as reticent Russia. Although importance should also be attached to the role of Brazil, India and Indonesia, is is these two countries, the next most powerful of non-western countries that could make or break global negotiations. I

The US has its work cut out; continued behind the scenes work will be the modus operandi in the run up to Copenhagen. However all policy relies on momentum, a global deal even a disappointing one, changes the domestic policy debates for the better, this could create a positive interchanging momentum that increasingly reaches for greater efforts to cut emissions globally.

International impetus on climate change not replicated domestically

International Success…

On the international stage, Indonesia can claim with some justification that it is leading the way in advancing the climate change agenda. In the last month alone, Indonesia has been active in:

• Putting the role of oceans on the climate change map as well as signing the Coral Triangle Initiative (discussed in last week’s blog);
• Releasing the world’s first REDD rules on how tradable carbon credits will be generated, detailing where REDD projects can take place and who can do them. Although questions have been raised as to how the carbon credit revenue will be shared between the project developers and the government, these rules are nevertheless a milestone in making the REDD scheme a reality;
• Linking any future REDD scheme with a concerted effort to address illegal logging, going as far to suggest that illegal logging could undermine REDD.

… Domestic Gloom

On the domestic front, however, concern is growing that Indonesia is not so committed. As pointed out by this blogger, even though the Presidential elections are next month, climate change is conspicuous by its absence from the election campaign. This is despite the dangers faced from rising sea levels and increased incidents of forest fires (which have already started and are projected to worsen significantly this year). Furthermore, the current economic crisis has resulted in a budget deficit totalling US$13.47 billion. Plans are afoot, however, to plug this gap with loans that are expressly allocated to climate change. As Basah Hernowo, the Bappenas director of forestry and water resource conservation says while the French and Japanese have agreed to give additional loans of $100 million, on top of the $500 million already agreed, towards reduction measures, “the government will use the money to cover the budget deficit”. And the reason given? “The loans for climate change issues have cheaper interest rates compared to other loans”.

This is extremely disturbing and raises the question of what the donor countries will do, especially as there is a monitoring mechanism in place to ensure that the money is spent on climate change projects. It also brings a more negative spin on the international achievements listed above: it suggests that internationally Indonesia is pushing the climate change agenda in order to secure more revenue for the general budget. While it could be argued that it is up to Indonesia to decide what it spends its budget on, one would expect enlightened self-interest to make climate change a top domestic priority. The signs so far however are not promising.

There has been a huge amount of coverage of conferences so far this year, the G20 foremost among them. There was another conference that took place last week that was important to anyone interested in climate change policy but you would be forgiven for missing it. The Western press, in a fit of parochialism, ignored a meeting that could have far-reaching consequences for climate change policy, namely the World Ocean Conference held in Manado, Indonesia (read my previous post about the lead-up to the conference here).

Initiated by the Government of Indonesia, it brought together representatives from 80 developing and developed countries to discuss the role of the oceans in climate change. Among the topics discussed and pledges made:

• The current lack of knowledge about what role oceans can play in mitigating climate change. In this context the US announced plans to give a grant of 0,000 to Indonesia to support ocean exploration;
• To acknowledge that coastal communities are going to be adversely affected by climate change and that adaptation needs to start now. It was suggested that funding for adaptation and mitigation would go through the Global Environment Facility (GEF);
• The signing of the Coral Triangle Initiative between Indonesia, Solomon Islands, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines to protect the coral reefs in their respective countries. The importance of coral protection should not be underestimated – the WWF estimates that around 100 million people’s livelihoods depend on these coastal environments, environments that are under threat from climate change.

Changing the rules of the game

Perhaps the most significant development from a climate change policy perspective however was the creation of a ‘roadmap’ to get the Manado Ocean Declaration (MOD) tabled in Bonn in June with a view to being incorporated into the Copenhagen negotiations. Indonesia, by taking the lead, has gained an enormous amount of prestige and by potentially adding oceans to the agenda, Indonesia stands to gain financially: not only will Indonesia gain from the REDD scheme but also by being the world’s largest archipelago, any financial deal that involves ocean as carbon sinks would benefit Indonesia enormously.

It is pleasing to see Indonesia take the lead in an issue which has been dangerously neglected. While the motivation maybe merely another source of revenue for the government of Indonesia, this conference can only be good for promoting climate change policies within Indonesia. There are a number of struggles ahead of course: it is by no means certain that the MOD will become part of the Copenhagen negotiations, and even then practical issues like the lack of scientific knowledge about the role of oceans as carbon sinks, could prevent them from becoming part of the post-Kyoto deal. Even so, this conference has helped raise awareness of this issue. Well in some places it has.

The G20 leaders standing for their

The G20 Summit in London has now concluded, with US President Obama filling the main press briefing room for an hour-long press session.  The main points of the summit for international and national climate policy are summarised below:

1. Overall: In the substantive elements of the summit outcomes there is little mention of climate change.  In the summary communiqué climate change is mentioned in the second-to-last and penultimate paragraphs only.  As Climatico’s Simon Billett asked UK Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband, there is little evidence that this summit has been more than an agreement to agree in later meetings.
2. Forestry: UK Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband, said that forestry was a fundamental element of the global climate programme.  Italy has agreed to hold specific discussions on it at the G8 in July 2009.  There was agreement from France, Australia, Italy, Germany, US on the need for a global forestry deal.  Forestry was a major point of discussion in the corridors between delegations.
3. USA Climate Policy: It remains unclear whether the Obama administration will require cuts from China and India for a ‘comprehensive’ COP15 deal.  Obama said that “further discussions” needed with China, and that the US recognises its role as leader of clean energy and tech for China and India.  Obama: “We need an interesting conversation on how to overcome this challenge… we need low carbon growth… a rapid deployment of technology across the world… the US needs to lead these countries into the low carbon energy future”.
4. Green Growth: The summit has done little to define green growth or encourage the use of best practice measures between G20 countries.  While para. 27 and 28 of the final communiqué do reaffirm the commitment to low carbon growth, the summit has done almost nothing to further definitions of what this might mean or how it should be achieved.

Geithner, Obama, and Brown

As expected, the global economy took center stage at the G20 Summit held yesterday in London. Amidst the world economic crisis, G20 leaders met to discuss and put forth a global plan for recovery. Included amongst the six pledges made by the leaders of the Group of Twenty was a pledge for a green and sustainable recovery. However, despite this pledge and the hopes of many demonstrators, the public, and officials, climate change and plans for a green recovery featured little in the day’s discussions.

Over the weekend, the official G20 communiqué leaked to the press and included only vague language on the topic of climate change. According to paragraphs 27 and 28 in the official communiqué:

27. We agreed to make the best possible use of investment funded by fiscal stimulus programmes towards the goal of building a resilient, sustainable, and green recovery. We will make the transition towards clean, innovative, resource efficient, low carbon technologies and infrastructure. We encourage the MDBs to contribute fully to the achievement of this objective. We will identify and work together on further measures to build sustainable economies.

28. We reaffirm our commitment to address the threat of irreversible climate change, based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and to reach agreement at the UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.

The vague language of the communiqué led to speculation that a “green stimulus” package might be less than concrete. This sentiment continued in the days leading up to the Summit.

Therefore, the day began with slightly lowered expectations for the one-day summit. Much of the morning for reporters was spent researching, writing, and watching leaders get their pictures taken. Anticipation and excitement began to grow as delegates sat down for their plenary session in the morning. However, not until close to 2:00 PM did green issues appear on the agenda with a press conference held by the UK Climate Change Secretary, Ed Miliband.

In the early afternoon, Miliband surprised reporters with a short press conference to brief them on the progress of climate change discussions and answer questions. Miliband stated that he was confident that the G20 Summit would provide forward movement towards Copenhagen in December. The discussions would serve to facilitate the process toward Copenhagen and would be used to make a statement to China and other developing countries that the United States, UK, and EU countries were committed to tackling climate change.

Climatico’s Simon Billett asked Miliband whether this talk of “first steps” was anything more than “agreeing to agree?” In response, Miliband stated that while the G20 summit was “essentially an economic summit,” among the G20 participants existed the understanding of the “mainstreaming [of] the green message.” Furthermore, Miliband said that countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia are more likely to attach importance to renewables despite prior hesitation. “This is a significant step in mainstreaming low carbon development in economic recovery…The notion of low-carbon as a way out of recession has gone from being marginal to being mainstream.”

Miliband went on to say that forestry is a fundamental element in the climate program and will be discussed in Italy at the G8 meeting in July. Billett noted that forestry proved a major topic of conversation within the corridors of the Summit. Furthermore, private discussions between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd regarding the importance of including forestry in a global climate deal adds to the speculation that forestry will be a topic to watch in the months to come.

Despite Miliband’s press conference, the topic of climate change once again became quiet over much of the afternoon. During his speech, French President Nicholas Sarkozy failed to reference any discussion on the topic of the environment. And, despite Miliband’s enthusiasm, UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown only restated that the G20 was committed to meet again later this year to discuss a Post-Kyoto climate deal.

However, U.S. President Barack Obama brought climate change back onto the floor during his press conference late in the day. Obama’s trip to London included several bilateral meetings with the leaders in attendance outside of the context of the G20. In response to a reporter’s question from the Times of India, Obama addressed a bilateral meeting he had with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Amongst other points of discussion, Obama and Singh touched on the issue of “energy and how important it is for the United States to lead by example in reducing our carbon footprint so that we can help to forge agreements with countries like China and India…for our efforts to control climate change.”

Obama alluded to future discussions on the topic of climate change with China. In addition, he recognized the challenges that lie ahead for the topic amidst the current economic crisis. “In some ways, our…European counterparts have moved more quickly than we have on this issue, but I think even the Europeans have recognized that it’s not easy. It’s even harder during times of economic downturn.” He went on to add, “We’re going to have to combine the low-hanging fruit of energy efficiency with rapid technological advances. And to the extent that in some cases we can get international cooperation and pool our scientific and technical knowledge around things like developing coal sequestration, for example, that can be extremely helpful.”

Obama’s speech wrapped up the events of the day. However, despite a long day of meetings and press conferences at the G20 Summit, action towards green growth remained largely undefined. As to be expected, the world economic crisis was the star of the show and, therefore, plans to repair the global economy held the spotlight. Yet, often this subject turned to the discussion of bank regulation and executive pay rather than outlining plans for green growth. Despite all of this, environmentalists can rest assured that the international dialogue on climate change has begun to move forward. Furthermore, as demonstrated in Obama’s press conference, the United States appears onboard for further discussions and acknowledges its role as a leader and partner in reaching a climate change deal come December. Between Obama’s acknowledgement that the US must lead by example and Miliband’s enthusiasm for momentum, hopefully the G20 will prove a success for environmentalists, after all, by bringing in greater participation, particularly by China and India, at Copenhagen later this year. We shall have to wait and see.

20:17 NB: So to end what has been over 12 hours of live-blogging from our analysts, I will leave you with Simon Billett’s summary article with four key take-home messages for the day.  Thanks for following our coverage of the climate-related aspects of the G20 Summit here in London, UK.  Goodnight!

20:14 NB: With the final press conference over, journalists and media representatives are being ushered from the Summit.  Many of the leaders here today called the Summit “historic”, and yet it had a distinct lack of discussion on climate change, save a press conference from Miliband and some final remarks from Obama.

19:48 FA: After the G20, President Obama is expected to visit France and Germany to mark the 60th anniversary of NATO. Many local hopes rest on enhanced US-EU cooperation in the international sphere.

19:46 SB: It is unclear whether Obama’s statements make Chinese and Indian action a condition for US action in COP15.  He has left this discussion open.

19:37 Obama: We need an interesting conversation on how to overcome this challenge… we need low carbon growth… a rapid deployment of technology across the world… the US needs to lead these countries into the low carbon energy future”

19:36 Obama: Our EU counterparts have moved quicker on this issue and perhaps the US need to catch up.

President Obama's press conference concluded the G20 Summit

19:35 Obama: We talked about a whole range of issues: energy, how important it is for the us to lead by example in reducing our carbon footprints so that we can help to forge something with China and India who have much smaller footprints and chafe at the idea of having to sacrifice their development.

19:34 Obama just stated that if China and India had the same per capita emissions as us in the US, we would effectively “melt”.

19:29 RV: Reuters also reports “Glen Tarman of BOND (British Overseas NGOs for Development) and chair of Put People First, an alliance of 160 unions, development, faith and climate change groups, said: “The G20 appears to have made progress on some critical issues but there are also missed opportunities, especially on building a green economy, and causes for real concern in other areas. G20 leaders have not yet gone far enough on the fundamental changes the world needs.”

19:28 RV: Reuters reports “Adrian Lovett, director of campaigns for Save the Children, said: “Nobody should imagine this summit is anything more than a beginning. A communique feeds no one and words alone do not save a child’s life. But there is a ray of hope from today’s summit that leaders may have grasped the chance to point the world in a fairer, more just direction. Everything now depends on what those leaders do next.”

19:26 RV: Tearfund regrets sees the G20 as a missed opportunity.  “We welcome the new money in this huge fiscal package but the G20 today missed a major opportunity to ensure that all new investments constitute a genuinely Green New Deal,” said Paul Cook, Tearfund’s Advocacy Director. “With no clear commitments to ensure that stimulus money is invested in low carbon technology the world risks a recovery which is based on business as usual. It locks us into a path which will result in runaway climate change and devastating impacts for the world’s poorest community.”"

19:25 RV: India reaffirms confidence in Obama’s leadership “”Under your leadership we will face challenges such as climate change,” the prime minister told Obama at their meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit here.”

19:13 NB: Still no mention of climate change in the question session.  Obama appears ill and just sneezed twice.

19:00 NB: Perhaps it’s an attempt to bring himself down to the level of the journalists in order to win their praise?

18:58 AD: While most politicians have an aide select people to ask questions, Obama is choosing them himself.

18:51 Obama’s only mention of climate change during his speech occurred while talked about the bilateral meetings: “we discussed coordinated action on a range of issues… [including how to] protect our planet from the scourge of climate change”.

18:50 NB: No mention of climate change yet in Obama’s press conference.

18:43 NB: At the reception earlier today, Obama was called “the most popular politician on the planet”.  His press conference just started and is being watched by the World’s media as I write this.  

18:41 FA: We have to remember that change in the US adminstration will take time, as they previously have been outside the Kyoto carbon reduction framework. Writing in the Guardian earlier in March, Nigel Purvis warned that the EU needed to resist the urge to set the US unrealistic climate standards. Its current emmissions are 17% abover their 1990 levels.

18:40 RV: Manmohan Singh description of his meeting with Obama where they spoke on how “the global issues like energy security and climate change can be dealt with together. I go back home very satisfied…”

18:36 NB: In true Summit style, Obama’s press conference has not begun yet, but the room is absolutely packed, and the organisers are currently shuffling around photographers to ensure that everyone has a sight line to the stage.

18:25 Adeline Dontenville just posted an article on Climatico discussing the seeming absence of the issue of climate change at the G20 Summit.

18:17 George Monbiot advocates a far greater focus on climate change

“The G20 leaders appear to have decided to deal with these problems only when they have to – in other words, when it’s too late. They persuade themselves that getting the economy back to where it was – infinite growth on a finite planet – can somehow be reconciled with the pledge “to address the threat of irreversible climate change”"

18:12 RV: ActionAid’s response: “Today’s crucial G20 talks have promised a huge rescue package for the global economy, but the promise must be kept”

18:09 FA: The Guardian reports that US President Obama’s G20 visit brought a ‘warm glow’ to Number 10. President Obama’s press conference looks as though it will start shortly.

17:52 RV: John Hilary has also been barred, and asks on guardian.co.uk, “[h]as the government decided only to allow non-critical organisations into major events?”

“More importantly, excluding critical voices means that there risks being less media coverage of what the G20 has omitted to do when it comes up with the statement to conclude its meeting. The “deal or no deal” fixation sets the summit up as a game show in which the only concern is whether all leaders can sign up to a joint communiqué. This is setting the bar almost as low as it can go”

17:46 NB: The G20 leaders’ wives and husbands’ photo shoot is currently taking place.

17:45 jimwebber@twitter: #g20 You choose your leaders and place your trust, as their lies wash you down and their promises rust

17:44 FA: Several NGOs have been prevented from attending the G20 summit.  As well as the World Development Movement, War on Want had its accreditation revoked at the last minute. The FCO maintains that this is a matter of being inundated with applications and not having sufficent space. Both of these NGOs were organisers of the ‘Put People First’ march through London on Saturday. Some have pointed out that a common thread amongst those being sidelined is that they do not feel that the IMF, WTO and World Bank should be empowered by the financial crisis. All three of these organisations have been given seats at the leader’ dinner table tonight.

17:42 SB: The Canadian and Italian press conferences have now both come to an end without any mention of climate change.

17:40 FA: Walden Bellow, an economist with Manila-based ‘Focus on the Global South’ doubts whether any stimulus packaged managed by the IMF will obtain international buy in.

17:31 SB: Obama’s press conference will begin in 20 minutes.

17:29 AFP: “German and US economic recovery plans are more climate friendly that those in France, Britain or Italy, but all fall short of what is needed to avoid dangerous levels of global warming, according to a green ranking of stimulus plans released Thursday” 

17:17 RV: The Task Force on Low-Carbon Economic Prosperity, part of the World Economic Forum, has sent an open letter to the G20.  The group, made up of major companies, international bodies, and leading climate change experts sent the letter demonstrating their willingness to work towards fighting climate change and rebuilding the economy.  The letter, sent earlier this week, touched upon low carbon economies, energy efficiency, adaptation and other topics.

“Designed properly, the new framework could have a greater degree of impact than any other sustainable development initiative in history. This is because a well-designed, market-based framework…can also help catalyse the required flows of private capital and clean energy technology to developing nations in the most innovative, entrepreneurial and cost-effective way”

17:10 AD: The Dutch Prime Minister says it is really important the G20 has today talked about long term issues like climate change.

16:59 NB: The EU press conference is currently taking place.  The Canadian conference will begin shortly, and the India press conference will be in roughly 45 minutes.

16:57 RV: Julian Oram of the World Development Movement:

“It’s absolutely astounding that the G20 communiqué merely paid lip service to climate change and the need for a low carbon economy. The excuse that climate change will be discussed later in the year at Copenhagen doesn’t wash. The G20 has missed the opportunity to deliver a green global stimulus package that would create jobs and help to tackle climate change. The economic crisis and the climate crisis are intrinsically interlinked and must be addressed as such through a global green new deal.”

16:54 RV: The World Development Movement, who were banned from Summit, have released a press release: “G20 outcome a bitter pill to swallow”

16:53 atvieira@twitter: “next G20 Summit @ North Pole. Penguins have just confirm attendance”

16:51 MMG: Paragraph 27 of the communique text:

We agreed to make the best possible use of investment funded by fiscal stimulus
programmes towards the goal of building a resilient, sustainable, and green
recovery.  We will make the transition towards clean, innovative, resource
efficient, low carbon technologies and infrastructure

16:48 MMG: The summit has still not resolved on what measures are required to implement this green growth that is being discussed.

16:46 MMG: Here is the communique text on climate change:

We reaffirm our commitment to address the threat of irreversible climate change,
based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and to reach agreement at the UN Climate Change conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.

16:40 DA: Sarkozy’s press conference is now over without a single mention of the world “climate”.

16:39 RobertsDan@twitter: #G20 #Sarko “if this is not capitalism with a conscience I don’t know what is”. He sounds happy.

16:37 Sarkozy: “The G20 has recognised that the world must change.”

16:34 NB: The final question of the Brown press conference has been asked, without a single mention of climate change in any of the questions.

16:31 sdmoss@twitter: “#g20 good outcome for poor and macro stabilty. Where’s climate change?”

16:30 CAFOD says Miliband “cannot see the wood for the trees”

16:25 Brown: “We now have countries that would never have sat around the table together a few years ago coming together… and working together.”

16:21 SB: Climate change is not particularly on the agenda before the next G20 Summit in Washington in September.  Brown failed to mention it when he was asked about the road to the next summit.  The G20 leaders have effectively deferred climate policy to the UNFCCC process and the G8 in Italy.

16:20 SB: All of the talk is on trade at the moment.

16:17 AD: Sarkozy: Gordon Brown was a “particularly intellectually honest host” of the G20. The “agreement goes beyond what we could have imagined.”

16:16 robertsdan@twitter: #G20 green promise goes no further than committing to “work together”. What does that mean?

16:15 AD: Sarkozy has made no mention of the environment or climate change.

16:14 SB: Brown attempts to advocate a coordination game in the globalised world to deal with climate change, “If countries act together they can make a better difference”

16:12 Brown” “We will put more money aside for a green recovery.”

16:10 Brown: “We will manage the process of globalisation.”  “A new world order is emerging… to build a more sustainable… future.”

16:09 SB: Brown has just said that the G20 is committed to meeting again later this year to discuss a Post-Kyoto climate deal.

16:07 NB: Brown has just agreed to appoint the heads of the IMF and World Bank based on merit (one would assume as opposed to the current scheme of the EU picking the head of the IMF and USA choosing the leader of the World Bank).

16:04 NB: No mention of climate change in either conference yet.

16:00 SB: Brown has begun his press conference.  Sarkozy is next door giving a simultaneous conference.  Brown’s aids seem unhappy about Sarkozy speaking at the same time.

15:48 SB: Primeminister Brown’s press conference is about to begin.  President Sarkozy’s will be straight after.

15:46 RV: Dan Roberts at the Guardian says:

“Sadly, the difficulty of reaching agreement on other thorny issues such as regulation has kicked climate change into the long grass at just the wrong moment.”

15:44 RV: guardianeco@twitter calls Miliband’s press conference earlier “disappointing on green issues”

15:36 RV: fissionstrategy@twitter says:

“Just met with UK Enviro Sec David Miliband who says getting people excited about green jobs means describing what those jobs look like.”

15:29 NB: The Summit’s live web-stream is full of journalists tensely waiting for the next news conference.

15:19 RV: Despite the rhetoric, Giles Broadbent feels that climate change was shortchanged during the G20.

Journalists waiting in anticipation of the next press conference

15:17 RV: Ed Miliband is confident about climate change progress: “What the G20 summit shows is there is an understanding among world leaders that the economic crisis and the environmental crisis can be tackled together”

15:09 NB: The second session is just beginning and Gordon Brown is speaking. Most of the discussion appears to be focusing on financial institutions.

15:05 MMG: The quite for the main press conference is very long, and the atmosphere feels rather anticipatory.

14:56 NB: Fuad Ali is taking a break so I’ll be taking over on the live-blogging front from here.  We still have plenty to look forwards to including an number of press conferences and a couple summary pieces from our analysts.  Stay tuned…

14:29 RV: This is not an absolute suprise, a Chinese news agency quoted Miliband last week saying,

“One of the fastest growing markets in the future is going to be in environmental industries.”

14:26 SB: Mexico’s President Calderon is leaving the UK at 14.30 BST and will be giving a statement at the airport rather than the conference centre.

14:25 SB: the press mood is frantic. This statement from Miliband is what many were hoping to hear.

14:18 SB: Miliband,

‘This is a significant step in mainstreaming low carbon development in economic recovery.’

14:16 SB: The communique from the G20 is throught to include specific language on climate change, [quoting Miliband] ‘despite the G20 being a primarily economic summit’.

14:12 SB: Climatico’s Simon Billett asks Miliband whether this talk of ‘first steps’ was anything more than agreeing to agree.

Miliband responded by saying that momentum building was key and that he had had significant discussions with Berlusconi on the inclusion of forestry as a specific issue at the G8 that will get its own discussion time.  There have also been private discussions between Merkel and Rudd on the importance of including forestry in a global climate deal.

Thus it appears that forestry will be a major topic of for the next ten months, yet the G20 seems to have reached nothing more than an agreement to agree.

13.58 RV: Intel chief Otellini has signed the Copenhagen Climate Council’s letter published in the International Herald Tribune today.

“We believe that this year we are at an historic crossroads. Either we establish a new more effective global climate treaty to tackle the climate problem, or we jeopardize our common future.”

13:53 SB: Miliband continues that the meeting with President Obama last night went well. Green growth was emphasised and both politicians agreed the challenge now was to build on the momentum developed at the G20 all the way to Copenhagen.

13:49 SB: Miliband talks around three points: 1) optimism with reference to copenhagen and securing a 20 nation sign-up at this Summit; 2) recognition that the mainstreaming of mitigation into development has been established from this moment on; and 3) that the G20 shows that Climate and Economy can be tackled together.

13:49 SB: More than two-thirds full now.

13:41 SB: The briefing room is filling up, and is currently at half of its capacity.  The media were not expecting any specific briefing on issues at the Summit, especially not on climate change, which has figured as something of an auxiliary issue at this G20.  The briefing was announced suddenly on screens in the media hall.

The press gather for a statement from Ed Miliband, the UK Secretary for Energy and Climate Change.

13:20 FA: Ed Milliband, UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change will be giving a statement at 13:45. We will be bringing it to you shortly. Grapling with two sometimes contradictory interests in the same portfolio in an age of great climate diplomacy and politics, Ed Milliband has delivered the UK public and bureaucracy a special pragmatism in the recent past.  From controversy with respect to a new coal power station in Kingsworth Kent to promoting carbon trading between government departments, his statement is important for the UK domestic climate picture as well as for what it expresses to the G20 community.

13:12 SB: At this point it looks as though there will be little or no new content on green growth and low carbon technology. [FA] Political horizons have no doubt shortened and with Copenhagen COP not to far away, little ground will be made up at this forum. Bilateral and regional contact sessions will have played an informal role in developing national coalitions for future discussions.

13:09 SB: Working lunch, fish and chips for the press.

12:45 RV: Ashok Sinha from Stop Climate Chaos says,

“Instead of boosting more unsustainable consumption, the hundreds of billions of dollars on the G20 table for a fiscal stimulus must be used to invest away from using fossil fuels in favour of low-carbon economies, as well as supporting low carbon development in poor countries.”

12:41 SB: The G20 family photography needed to be taken again, as Stephen Harger (Canada) had been ommitted. He was in the loo.

12:38 SB: Rudd (Australia) and Berlusconi (Italy) now chatting in private.

12:38 SB: Mandelson says “There are key differences over numbers”.

12:34 RV: The Jakarta Post quotes Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on his 15 minute pre-summit meeting with Gordon Brown.

“I said it was good to have *energy cooperation*, especially *with* BP, to jointly develop environmentally friendly biofuels in Indonesia.”

12:24 SB: The seating plan for dinner later today.

12:20 AD: It looks like they agreed upon listing tax havens and increasing IMF loan funds by $250 billion

12:19 SB: The first plenary session is just wrapping up.

12:00 RV: More from the bilateral sidelines, this time concerning President Obama’s interaction with Chinese President Hu Jintao. China and the US are the two largest national polluters. XinghuaNet reports that substantial attention, a paragraph, was devoted to clean energy and climate change in the ensuing White House statment.

11:46 AD: A study commissioned by environmental charity WWF and the low-carbon group E3G stated that the economic recovery plans being discussed by G20 leaders at the London summit represent “a missed opportunity” on low carbon technology.

Bob Geldof continuing advocacy for Africa.

11:40 AD: Adeline Dontenville has just published a blog article on how green the London G20 Summit outcomes will be.

11:27 RV: Globoreports that Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will tell the G20 that Brazil is ready to contribute to an IMF fund to help poor countries affected by the crisis.

11:06 SB: There will be no new money provided by this summit.  This leaves ‘green growth’ within the sphere of national policies.  All that this summit can do is to pledge to use certain climate measures in their plans.

10:53 RK: In his meeting with President Obama, the Indian envoy Schyam Saran called for a comprehensive climate pact and for the famous ‘stimulus’ package to include to provision to improve developing country’s access to green technology.

10:42 SB: Delegates are taking their seats in the plenary session now.The atmosphere is growing in the media pool as statements are expected to reveal the extent of agreement and division between delegations.

10:37 MMG: Post-breakfast photo opportunistic politics, Gordon Brown flanked by the Chinese premier and the Brazilian president.

10:19 FA: Leaders are busy having their photos taken. In recent months, government and press attention on fundamental failings in financial culture have been prioritised over environment. The coincidence of climate and financial crises creates an opportunity for newer, less seasoned ideas about how government may approach economy and environment.

“There can be no going back to business as usual” Put People First

This has been one of the messages from the public demonstrations taking place all over London.

10:15 SB: In the pre-summit information (reported below) there has been much discussion of ‘green growth’, but with little detail of precisely what form this will take.  Discussions taking place at the ExCel Centre here suggest that the use of market mechanisms maybe a preferred method for reducing emissions while also stimulating new markets within the economy–i.e. the carbon finance/trading sector.  While the use of market mechanisms allows emission reductions to follow the most efficient mitigation options financially, there is some concern among the NGO parties here that market mechanisms will not work without hard caps on carbon within the G20 economies to drive forward carbon trading–that is, trade cannot function without a cap.  Such a cap would be largely incompatible with the industrial interests that are also represented at this G20 summit.  Resolving these contradictions to effective mainstreaming of carbon mitigation into growth will be a key decider of the success of this meeting from a climate perspective.

The very idea of carbon trading, which stems from 2001 COP meetings, was strongly contested by many demonstrators at the Climate Campon Bishopsgate, who made their peaceful basecamp outside the European Climate Exchange (FA).

10:11 MMG: The Summit document “The Road to the London Summit: The Plan for Recovery,” emphasises trade, employment, climate and international development, in that order. On climate it articulates the need to

“Call for a low carbon recovery, and agree the need for international leadership on a strategic framework to stimulate investment”

Low-carbon growth is evidently being viewed through a wider sustainability lens in the context of the summit; this lens includes technological capacity-building and the creation of long-lasting trade links.  How sustainable can post-crisis growth really be? The FT has the whole strategically (leaked)communique online.

10:04 FA: This G20 summit has attracted much public and civil society anger, demonstration and hope. Conditional hope because of the new US administration.

09:52 SB: The sub-committee draft represents a departure from a report released earlier this year, with the House suggesting that the use of offsets was not a reliable method for reducing emissions

09:44 SB/MMG: On March 31 2009 the Energy and Environment Sub-Committee of the US Congress released a draft o the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009′. The release of the US House draft bill will certainly play well at both the G20 and UNFCCC Summits taking place.

“While it is clearly a step forward for the US domestically, as well as for the international negotiations, there are still major problems to be overcome–not least in terms of regulation and methodological problems with REDD at present.  The US must ensure that it is financing projects that are truly sustainable through offsets.” G20 Voice

09:32 SB: Just in from UNFCCC Bonn (ENB) . Canada has said that decisions on how to address consequences are a matter of national sovereignty, and the international response could only consist of recommendations of best practices or considerations.

09: 26 SB: There is some talk in the media hall that expectations may have been placed too high for a single, one-day summit.  UK Business Secretary Peter Mandelson has just made a comment to BBC News to that effect.

09:20 FA: The Business Secretary’s green credentials were the subject of a protest action recently.

09: 16 SB: Low-carbon growth may simply be reduced to agreement on attempting to ‘mainstream’ some environmental considerations in any new infrastructure.

09:13 FA: This meeting is the first opportunity many G20 leaders have will have to make face-to face contact with US President Obama. Much will be negotiated on the fringes of the summit. The course and potency of the global Climate Change negotiation has been strongly impacted by US policy in the past. ANP reports that Dutch Prime Minister Balkenende call directly for greater US action on climate change (RV).

‘I mentioned the fact that in the past the US did not join Kyoto. And that I hoped the US would expressly take part in the reaching of agreements on climate change in Copenhagen.’

09:09 SB: The press area is now filling up as delegations arrive at the Summit centre.

Delegations and press

08:20 FA: The Heads of Delegation and Finance Ministers are arriving, limousine by limousine.

08:03 , and at the Guardian have reported

The draft G20 communique leaked at the weekend makes only the smallest reference to climate change, and appears to be vague on the subject of how green the $2tn (£1.4tn) stimulus package agreed by world leaders should be.

Fuad Ali (FA), Paige Andrews (PA), Simon Billett (SB), Niel Bowerman (NB), Adeline Dontenville (AD), Maria del Mar Galindo (MMG) and Radhika Viswanathan (RV) all contributed to this report.

On March 5 2009 Climatico released its first assessment report of national climate policy across twelve of the G20 countries.

This, the first of four reports leading to COP-15 in December 2009, tracks progress in government climate policy between 1st November 2008 and 20th February 2009.  Through this tracking the report draws conclusions about general trends between national policies to understand how climate policy is developing in the major greenhouse gas-emitting countries.   This ‘overview’ is presented in an editorial in Chapter 1 of the report. The report also includes a special chapter on energy policy in China.

Some of the main findings of the report are:

• A significant funding gap is appearing for adaptation, as developing country lack domestic resources and capacity and also appear unable to rely on international transfer mechanisms to meet their financing needs.  It is at present unclear how adaptation will be effectively financed.
• The financial crisis is allowing a mainstreaming of climate change into recovery packages, accelerating otherwise difficult shifts to low carbon growth in developed countries. However, the same crisis is causing a major slow down in projects that do not contribute to financial recovery (see Box 2 on page 10).
• CDM project growth in Mexico and Indonesia is already slowing significantly compared to business projections for early 2009, with most Indonesian projects on hold.

The countries included in the report are: UK, EU, France, Germany, Canada, USA, Mexico, India, China, Indonesia, Japan, Australia.

For enquires please contact:

Simon Billett, Research Director  (simon.billett@climaticoanalysis.org)

Dan Lewer, Communications Director (dan.lewer@climaticoanalysis.org)