The Matterhorn, as seen from Zermatt, Switzerland, March 2009. Skiing in Zermatt, Switzerland this past winter it was obvious that snow levels were decreasing at an unusual rate, as discussed in the Convention report.

A major publication from the EU’s Convention on the Protection of the Alps last week, revealed the dramatic effects of climate change on the Alps region.

The Convention on the Protection of the Alps was established in 1991 and is headquartered out of Bolzano, Italy. The Convention report published on 17 June 2009 is its second magisterial report. It reveals that the northern ranges of the Alps are suffering serious flooding while southern ranges are generally seeing huge reductions in snow fall. Average Precipitation levels have decreased 10 % in the south-east of the region.

Marco Onida, secretary general of the Convention, recognizes that “the European climate is dividing in two…the result will be havoc for the Alps and the communities and wildlife that rely on the area.” The Alps’ most famous peaks, such as Mont Blanc, The Matterhorn, and Monte Rosa, mark the division between the wet north and Italy and Slovenia in the dryer south of the region.

The current analysis of changes to be made to the Swiss-Italian border is a prime example of such geo-political changes driven by climate change. The Italian military has been tracking changes as glaciers on the border melt over the last thirty years. Italian Brig. General, Carlo Colella (Florence) suggests that in some places the border could change up to 100 m. It is also believed that Italy will gain territory as the glaciers in the Southern Alps are melting at a faster rate.

The border in question was last changed in 1861 when Italy became a unified state. Now the Italian government is involved in changing their national legislation to allow such a border change; Switzerland requires no such change to law. Colella acknowledges that “after the border change with Switzerland, the Italian-French border will come under consideration.”

Outside of creating complex border issues, climate change in the Alps has begun to have profound implications for agriculture and tourism. Northern villages already face flooding and water shortages and decreased snowfall in the south have already started to hit the tourism industry. Additionally, Alpine species are being driven further up the mountains; thus, exotic and invasive plant species are starting to take hold lower down in the Alpine system.

The Convention report points to the environmental burden, especially with regards to expediting climate change, from the increased demand for artificial snow by the tourism industry. This is a necessary step in order to sustain the winter sports industry, which is the economic mainstay of the area. But it is a catch-22 scenario, under which generation of artificial snow further burdens already stressed water and energy supplies.

Ultimately, changing patterns of rain and snowfall, shrinking glaciers, and raising temperatures are seen by the Convention report as the greatest challenges to Alpine villages. The Convention report cites Italy’s 178 mile-long Tagliamento (in the northeast of the country) as the only Alpine river to not suffer drastic modifications to date. Dr. Onida said that “the Alps are the water tower of Europe, but much of the water is no longer reaching the places downstream where it is actually needed for ecosystem [stability], agriculture, and energy [generation].” He does acknowledge the very real struggle between agriculture and tourism for scarce water supplies.

Only time will tell how national borders will change and whether climate change will lead to intense battles between tourism and the survival of Alpine villages. The eight Alpine countries – France, Italy, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Slovenia, and Hungary – are taking action through the Alpine Convention. There may be time and the means to manage and mitigate some of the most extreme effects of climate change in the Alps.

In a landmark vote on Capitol Hill today, The House of Representatives passed the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill, which lays the foundations for a cap-and-trade system in the US. The vote was narrowly passed with 219 for and 212 against.

In the run up to the vote today some pundits said that the vote would pass, while others said it would fail.  Conventional wisdom, however, suggests that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would not have put it to a floor vote unless she knew she had the votes in the bag.  In a vote this tight, those that fall on the dividing line can have a disproportionally-large influence on the Bill.  This phenomenon was well illustrated by the extra 0.25% of permits that were allocated to refineries at the last minute in order to win over Rep. Harry Teague.

The reception has been mixed in the US, with House Republican leader John Boehner calling it “the biggest job-killing bill that has ever been on the floor of the House of Representatives.”  On the other hand the response internationally has been largely positive.  In a meeting with Obama earlier today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised the bill: “This is, indeed, a sea change that I see [...] this really points to the fact that the United States are very serious on climate.”  Although the bill has been widely supported by environmental groups, some say it does not go far enough.

The vote today does not guaruntee the passage of the bill into law, as it must first face the daunting task of passing the Senate.  Nonetheless, Obama’s victory today gives him some important extra cards to play in the run up to the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen this December.

The Rudd government has just released (19/06/09) draft regulations for the Australian Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), outlining how carbon emissions will be measured and industry compensation calculated. The draft regulations specify the framework for the Emission Intensive-Trade Exposed assistance program, application procedures and reporting requirements for eligible entities under the program.

The regulations just published are the first of several disclosures on how the country’s emissions trading scheme will take shape, Australia’s Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said. The rules outline some of the highly emissions-intensive sectors that will receive up to 94.5 per cent of their expected needed amount of emission permits for free under the CPRS.
Production of carbon black, methanol, silicon, bulk flat glass, newsprint, and zinc will all be counted in this category. Moderately emission-intensive sectors will get up to 66 per cent of their allowances free of charge.

Treatment of energy-intensive trade-exposed industries under the carbon scheme is playing a major role in Australia’s debate on how to tackle climate change, as many industries and the Opposition fear jobs will be lost to countries without carbon regulations, such as China and India. In addition, Greens strongly oppose the draft, as stated by Senator Christine Milne: “The draft regulations confirm that the carbon pollution reduction scheme will be a multi-million dollar wealth transfer from the people to the big polluters, and that stands in the way of protecting the climate,” (ABC 19/06/09)

The Government says it is releasing the draft regulations earlier than normal because it wants to give MPs as much information as possible. It is indeed trying to get senators to support its scheme in an effort to have the legislation passed by the Senate next week. But the ETS legislation is in trouble. The Opposition, which does not want to vote on the scheme until next year, plans to filibuster all week to avoid it being put to a vote at all. The Greens have vowed to vote the scheme down but do not support delaying the vote. (ABC 18/06/09) If the bill is defeated, or there is a vote to defer it until August, either will count as a refusal by the Senate to pass it. In this case, things could start to become very difficult for the Rudd government, possibly triggering an early election before the end of the year. (SMH 19/06/09)

President Obama, in close discussions with Energy Secretary Stephen Chu and Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach is to give the green light for US consumption of oil sand oil, or rather the import of fuels considered among the “dirtiest” in the fuel market. In a meeting last week, President Obama decided that the Canada’s oil sands represented an important part of national security supplies for petroleum in America’s near future.

The move is not without immediate precedent, as Francois Cardinal at cybercress.ca notes, both Hillary Clinton had offered support for oil sands at a recent conference on energy security, and Obama’s national Security adviser General Jim Jones was similarly adamant that the US would be foolish to reject the possibility of a stable source from a close partner in Canada.

The move will disappoint many in the green movement, given Obama has previously been less supportive of oil sands, noting that the Us needed to ween itself off dirty and dangerous oil supplies. In particular at a recent summit with Canada, President Obama described US coal as equivalent to Alberta’s oil sands, given environmentalists hope that the US would take a tough line demanding far reaching cleanup efforts if the oil sands were ever to be imported.

Speaking at a recent energy conference the Calgary Herald noted Energy Secretary’s Chu’s position

“This is energy that one hopes to develop in a clean way, and so that you can decrease the environmental footprint, both in the energy invested in order to recover it and on the local environmental issues,” Chu said Monday in response to a Herald query.

“There are also environmental issues having to do with the recovery of the oil sands, the very tarry stuff that’s left behind, the residues. There haven’t been solutions to that yet,” added Chu, who met privately with Premier Ed Stelmach on Monday for about 30 minutes”

How far the environmental issues are pushed depends on a large number of factors, in terms of Canada’ s federal Climate policy projects such as oil sands are only required to reduce the intensity of their energy consumption in order to keep with Canada’s GHG targets, in short allowing growth in absolute Carbon emissions. Worse, of the projects designed to reduce emissions from critical polluting sectors, most of Canada’s research investment is going to “clean coal” rather than oil sands:

“Alberta Minister of Environment Rob Renner said Tuesday that the lion’s share of $ 2 billion planned for the burial of carbon was destined for the coal industry”

However, environmental movements within Canada, have made strong progress in other states such as British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec which could increase the pressure on states such as Alberta to set more ambitious reduction targets and forcing them to channel greater investment into cleaning up the oil sands. Furthermore, the role of California the US’s biggest car using state has effectively banned Alberta oil unless it cleans up, through regional Environmental alliances such as the WCI such policy could be diffused throughout other key states, potentially even within Canada.

In summary, oil sands as noted previously now look set for a stable future, one albeit without the much feared spectacular growth that marked environmentalists concerns prior to the recession and one in which increasing pressure will probably be put on the oil sands to reduce their environmental impact, but in terms of derailment, the oil sands appear to have escaped that pitfall.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (image credit: NOAA)

This week the United States government has finally released the long awaited report entitled Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. This is the first report dealing with climate change impacts to have been released in nearly a decade (though Congress has mandated annual updates on the science of climate change and a comprehensive report every four years is required by federal law, none has been released during the Bush years), and is the most detailed and comprehensive to have ever been written by a US agency.

Commissioned by the US Global Change Research Program, it is a collaborative effort by experts from 13 US government science agencies as well as from several universities and research institute. The report, which uses the most up-to-date scientific findings, updates the latest IPCC reports and breaks climate change impacts – both current and expected – by US region and economic sectors.

I won’t go into the impacts mentioned in the report - those have been detailed in other places (see for example NOAA’s press release for the main findings, or more detailed breakdowns by regions and sectors), and are not new in themselves, as this is in essence a review of scientific publications similar to the IPCC reports. The exciting part for me is that for the first time Americans are presented with government sponsored, easy to read and detailed information about the impacts that will – and already are – affecting them directly. I don’t think that I am being too optimistic in hoping that this report – published just before an expected House vote on the Waxman – Markey bill next week – will be a beginning of a long overdue paradigm shift in the American public. 

After all, there are reasons why most Americans don’t believe that climate change in happening, that it is man made, or that its consequences will affect them, and one of these reasons is that official information has been so sorely lacking from the public debate. Even when reporting natural disasters such as hurricanes and droughts, most newspapers have so far failed to make a connection to climate change. Now however, NGOs have been quick to pick up this report and rely on its clout to encourage their members to act, or just to remind them that climate change is real and it is about to affect us all.

Over the past two weeks, delegates from 183 countries convened in Bonn, Germany to create negotiating texts under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for consideration in Copenhagen this December. In focus at Bonn was the enhancement of international climate change cooperation, particularly as it relates to the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012. In all, over 4,600 participants were in attendance, consisting of government delegates, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, representatives of the private sector, academia, and the media.

The Bonn Climate Change Talks, which began on June 1st and concluded on June 12th, consisted of four meetings as part of the UNFCCC: the sixth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA 6), the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Protocol met for its eighth session (AWG-KP 8), and both the Convention’s Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) held their 30th sessions.

A brief summary of the meeting results are as follows:

AWG-LCA 6

The meeting by the AWG-LCA focused on the negotiating text development and was largely a success, resulting in a 200-page draft negotiating text. The draft managed to hold to elements addressed under the Bali Action Plan such as a shared vision for long-term cooperative action, adaptation, mitigation, finance as well as technology and capacity-building.

AWG-KP 8

The AWG-KP considered the various proposals put forth by the Annex I parties under the Kyoto Protocol. Unfortunately, these discussions resulted in less success than that of the AWG-LCA 6. Over the course of the plenary sessions, the parties were unable to reach an agreement on emission reduction targets post-2012 and developing countries expressed disappointment at the proposals made by Annex I countries. According to John Ashe, the Chair of AWG-KP, while options for the treatment of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) to reduce emissions saw great progress, both aggregate emission reduction targets and individual targets have yet to be decided. In addition, the negotiating group remained far from the target range required by science to avoid the severe climate change impacts.

SBI

In focus for the SBI was the development and transfer of technologies. Three reports were produced by the Expert Group on Technology Transfer (including future financing options, long-term strategies, and indicators of performance). Furthermore, the SBI produced an agreement to reconstitute the Consultative Group of Experts on Non-Annex I National Communications. Unfortunately, the second comprehensive review of the capacity-building framework under the Protocol and the Convention was met with a lack of agreement.

SBSTA

The SBSTA considered such issues as the methodology, technology transfer, research and systemic observation, and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (referred to as REDD). The methodologies that make it possible to both monitor and report emissions from deforestation (accounting for 20% of greenhouse gas pollution) made solid progress. However, the SBSTA failed to come to an agreement on REDD for the COP draft.

Despite lack of agreement in various areas of discussion over the past two weeks, the meetings in Bonn resulted in the adoption of 31 conclusions and seven draft decisions. According to Yvo de Boer, the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, “A big achievement of this meeting is that governments have made it clearer what they want to see in the Copenhagen agreed outcome…In my view, an ambitious and effective agreed outcome in Copenhagen is in sight - an outcome that provides a strong and definitive answer to the alarm raised by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

The Bonn session marked the second in a series of five major UNFCCC meetings occurring this year in preparation for the UN Climate Change Conference, taking place from 7th-18th of December in Copenhagen. The next step in the process toward Copenhagen is for parties to refine the specifics of the text for discussion at the next Bonn meeting in August, followed by another session in Bangkok in late September and a gathering in Barcelona in early November.

The second two-week round of UN-led climate talks, held in Bonn, met with some critical feedback, though there were notable highlights in the dialogue.  One such highlight was the pitch four of the world’s largest air carriers made for a worldwide emissions limit for all airlines as part of the deal to be reached in Copenhagen this December.

The Aviation Global Deal Group (AGD), which includes British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Air France/KLM and Virgin Atlantic, presented what they deem an “ambitious, equitable, and effective” regime of emission caps for all airlines.  This proposal is an effort to include the industry in a climate treaty that 192 nations aim to agree upon this December.  The UN estimates that airlines account for about 3 % of global emissions.  The airline industry has not been subject to GHG regulations up to this point.

Executive secretary of the UN’s climate-change agency, Yvo de Boer, does admit that “it’s very hard to say if aviation will be included” in a final agreement in Copenhagen.  Regardless, airlines are expected to be included in EU regulations in 2012.  The USA has also proposed future legislation on airline CO2 output.  The AGD specifically discussed capping carriers’ GHG output based on annual fuel purchases.  Companies overshooting their target would have to buy permits from those emitting less than their allocation.  Revenue from auctioned permits would go towards helping developing countries adapt to climate change and developing cleaner air travel technology.

Yet, the Bonn talks were described as yielding little true consensus. France’s climate ambassador, Brice Lalonde, said that compared to previous sessions, in Bonn “the attitudes were more constructive, but the level of ambition was lower.”  His specific criticism was that it is now commonly accepted knowledge that global emissions have to be halved by 2050 (compared with 1990 levels), implying an 80 % reduction by industrialized countries. It is also generally agreed that the emissions levels in developing countries must start falling by 2025 at the very least.   But in Lalonde’s opinion, “no one is signing up” – in which statement he is also rather critical of the EU’s involvement.

The driving issues, such as who should cut their emissions and how soon, as well as the question of technology transfer to poor countries, require specific road mapping exercises – for example the proposal by the AGD.  Just last month in a major meeting in Paris (reported in a previous Climatico article), representatives from France and Germany were ardent in their call for flexibility in the mechanisms by which climate change mitigation occurs, so long as it does indeed occur.  Perhaps it will be industry partnerships of multi-national firms that ultimately pushes – or flies—  climate change negotiations over this precarious negotiation standstill?

Environmental issues are central to the new government’s plan. Refusing to sign up to “any legal commitments or binding, mandatory targets on climate change”, Jairam Ramesh, the new Environment and Forests Minister reiterated that India will stick to its own climate change initiative: the eight national missions announced in the NAPCC last year. Perhaps reacting to the much repeated criticism of the climate change action plan, the government has stressed the need for more “action” and less “talk” this time around.

To start, the self certification clause that would have allowed industries to simply “self certify “ the environmental impact of any expansion will be dropped. BT Brinjal will not be hitting the supermarket shelves anytime soon either as the government has indicated that a comprehensive study on genetically modified foods is needed before clearance for any new foods will be given.

While the finance ministry may be keen on doing away with these “anti-market” environmental obstacles, Jairam Ramesh has declared that he will focus his energies on strengthening the regulatory system and ensuring stricter environmental norms. Environmental laws have long been seen in India as obstacles to development and growth. Arguing that a more accountable and transparent system will integrate environmentalism into the country’s economic model creating a more sustainable growth plan, Jairam Ramesh hopes to set up new overseeing authorities as well. The new government has announced that the current Central Pollution Control Board will be converted into a new environmental protection authority. Biodiversty and wildlife protection authorities and a new public environmental research institute will also be set up.

This new pro environment stance taken by the government is a good start. Till now, the environmental ministry has generally maintained a low profile and a strong environmental ministry that is ready to a take a stand is a welcome change.  India really needs to start putting in place the promised missions and enforcing environmental standards. But there also is pressure on the government to maintain economic growth rates during the economic slowdown and in order to do so it appears they have realised that India will have to match economic growth with environmental protection and adaptation.

According to a UNEP report, investment towards renewable energy in India increased by 12 percent this past year, with a 17 percent rise in investment in the wind energy sector and India has been lobbying at the international level for more technology transfer. At the domestic level, the new Minister has set the right tone. But for India to come out on top, the government has to follow through these next five years.

©Sankei

On 10 June, Taro Aso, Prime Minister of Japan, pledged that Japan would cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent below the 2005 levels by 2020 (8 percent below the 1990 levels). He expected that, achieving this mid-term target would lead to greenhouse gas emissions reductions approximately by 25 percent by 2030 and then by 70 percent by 2050.

Japan had six plans for the mid-term target, ranging from 4 percent reductions below the 2005 levels to 30 percent reductions.  The mid-term target came from one of the six plans, 14 percent reductions below the 2005 levels. This plan has been reinforced by another one percent because the Komei party, comprising the ruling coalition with the liberal democratic party, and the Ministry of the Environment, strongly demanded a more ambitious target.

One of the main reasons for this choice is that the Japanese people favour the 14 percent reductions plan. On 24 May 2009, Cabinet Secretariat showed the results of the ‘public opinion poll concerning the mid-term target for global warming’. According to the results, 45.4 percent of the respondents were for the 14 percent reductions plan: 15.3 percent for the 4 percent reductions plan; 13.5 percent for the 21 percent reductions plan; and 4.9 percent for the 30 percent reductions plan. Although the respondents were shown how much each household had to pay to reduce greenhouse gases by 14 percent  (i.e. 80,000 yen in a year), most of the respondents chose this target. Aso said in his mail magazine on 11 June that he deeply respected the good sense of his people. If the Japanese people favoured a less ambitious target, he could not have made this decision despite strong industrial oppositions. Indeed, generally, the Japanese industry very strongly demanded that Japan had to choose a 4 percent reductions plan. In addition, though the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry demanded a target that would not severely damage the Japanese economy, it compromised to accept the 14 percent reductions plan because it said that 14 percent reductions would be possible with the introduction of most updated technologies.This may be another important reason that Aso chose this target.

Although Japan chose the ambitious target, it is apparently difficult for Japan to achieve it. Though Japan ambitiously vowed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent below the 1990 levels by 2012 under the Kyoto protocol agreement , Japan has been unable to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, and it would possibly fail to achieve it, mainly because the Japanese Government has been highly concerned with protecting the industry from suffering costs for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is questionable whether the Government can persuade the industry to reduce dramatically greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the more stringent mid-term target though it has failed to do so to achieve the Kyoto protocol agreement.

Finally, it should be emphasized that the Government must consider how the mid-term target influence the most vulnerable segments of the society including the poor, the handicapped, children and the elderly, which has been almost totally neglected in the discussion of the mid-term target. Because achieving the mid-term target clearly requires a wide range of ‘changes’ in the society, the Government has to be concerned with influences of the target placed onto them. Although the mid-term target has been finally set, there are a number of difficult and complicated issues that Japan has to start to work out for achieving the target.

While delegates continue with meetings this week to develop a negotiating text for Copenhagen in December, the attitudes and voices heard outside of the plenary sessions can be perhaps even more revealing about the progress being made at Bonn. Courtesy of daily coverage compiled by IISD Reporting services, we are granted a peak at the wizards from outside of the curtain as they walk within the corridors at Bonn…

MONDAY, 1 JUNE 2009

Enjoying a needed break

With over 4,300 registered participants for the Bonn meeting, the corridors were congested on the first day of the meeting. Many participants characterized the meeting as a significant step in the lead up to Copenhagen. “We have Chairs’ draft negotiating texts on the table under both AWGs and we also have the six-month rule to consider, so it should be an interesting meeting,” commented one participant.

Many expressed cautious optimism about what they felt had been constructive plenary discussions under the AWG-LCA. Although there were some diverging views over the contents of the Chair’s negotiating text, most delegates were happy that agreement had been reached to discuss it further in informal plenary sessions. Some developed country delegates said, however, that they would have preferred to dedicate more attention to the legal framework, pointing out that only one hour of informals is currently allocated for what they felt was an important topic.

The AWG-KP’s opening plenary was delayed by more than an hour while parties consulted informally over mandate issues and the structure and number of possible contact groups. The result - three different contact groups on Annex I further commitments considering the same two texts, was, as one delegate put it, “an arrangement that everyone can live with but no one is happy about.”

TUESDAY, 2 JUNE 2009
While the SBSTA and SBI continued their opening plenaries, the AWG-KP and AWG-LCA kicked into a higher gear with the commencement of contact groups and an informal plenary. Under the AWG-KP, some participants characterized the day’s deliberations as “useful but not too exciting.” Delegates spent the afternoon contact groups in largely procedural discussions on how to structure their work for the remainder of the meeting. While the “other issues” group agreed to prioritize LULUCF discussions in Bonn, the “numbers group” planned to proceed iteratively between aggregate and individual commitments. “It was a good start,” said one AWG-KP delegate, “though I’m still not sure how the ‘numbers group’ is going to move forward - we’re still looking at some pretty fundamental disagreements.”

Meanwhile, informal consultations on how to proceed with the agenda and the financial mechanism under the SBI continued throughout the day, “almost reaching agreement but just coming up short,” according to one delegate.

After its initial informal plenary session, AWG-LCA delegates were left with some food for thought regarding how to address issues and proceed after the first reading of the negotiating text. Some concerned-looking observers were heard wondering whether they would be sitting inside or outside the negotiating room when the second reading of the negotiating text begins. However, no one appeared particularly perturbed over the confirmation that the November meeting would be held in Barcelona.

WEDNESDAY, 3 JUNE 2009
On Wednesday, the corridors were filled with busy delegates who spilled out quickly after meetings, rushing to coordination groups spread throughout the Maritim Hotel. Parties had plenty to coordinate on as contact groups and informals proliferated. One delegate emerging from the “question and answer” informal in the AWG-KP emission reductions group stopped long enough to say that the informals were “elucidating.” He explained, “I don’t know if we agree any more, but at least we understand each other better.”

A number of delegates seemed to be feeling the pressure, and some voiced frustration about duplicating discussions across bodies. “Why are we still talking about adaptation in SBI when we talked about it all morning in the AWG-LCA,” sighed one delegate. “It’s time to put some of these agenda items to bed if we’re going to have the time we need in Copenhagen.”

Many delegates appeared a bit hesitant to offer opinions about progress made or lack thereof, saying that it was still too early in the game. Some were looking forward with anticipation to the AWG-LCA informals on legal form scheduled for Thursday.

The “forest club” made its first appearance today as the REDD and LULUCF discussions got underway. “What are they talking about” one bewildered observer was overheard whispering in the back of the REDD contact group. “These people speak their own language,” his colleague whispered back. Perhaps one African delegate was right in Tuesday’s AWG-KP plenary when he welcomed a specialized spin-off group on LULUCF, saying “generally speaking, those negotiators are a different breed.”

THURSDAY, 4 JUNE 2009

Jukka Uosukainen (Finland) and Zaheer Fakir (South Africa) stop for a quick chat before a session

The atmosphere at the Maritim Hotel was lively and busy as ever on Thursday. The meeting room hosting the lunchtime technical briefing organized by the AWG-LCA Chair was standing room only. During the event, delegates from Brazil, Bolivia, China and India made presentations on historical responsibility as a guide to future action on climate change. Lively discussions followed, continuing later in the corridors and even in some negotiations, including the AWG-KP contact group on Annex I emission reductions. One observer commented that notions of historical responsibility reflect “deeply held beliefs” for some developing countries who are unlikely to “be pushed around” on the issue. Some developed country delegates, however, were heard wondering when current responsibilities would be discussed.

Some conceded that they could use a refresher course on the Convention as so many of the discussions are now centered on what is written in it - whether historical responsibility is included, and whether and how the various proposals under the AWG-LCA relate to the Convention’s provisions. “I’m glad that someone announced in yesterday’s plenary that they have some extra copies of the Convention text - the Secretariat may soon be running out of the coveted booklets.”

Later in the day, a number of delegates met in an informal group under the AWG-LCA to discuss the legal form of the outcome. Some emerging from the room afterwards seemed perplexed: “For non-lawyers, it was certainty a crash course in international law.” Others, however, were excited: “This was it! We have been postponing these discussions, but now the options are finally on the table, countries are speaking frankly about the options they prefer, and we’re starting to address some real issues,” commented one seasoned negotiator. “I wish I was following some of those issues,” commented one envious delegate, languishing in largely routine discussions under the SBs all day.

FRIDAY, 5 JUNE 2009
After yet another busy day, some delegates were starting to feel fatigued, including many that had attended 3-hour AWG-LCA plenary sessions every morning for five days. “It’s true that we’re finally getting into substance, and that we’ve managed to go through two very important chapters, but still, things are moving slowly,” one delegate commented, continuing: “But we had better brace ourselves for an intense second week if our aim is still to get through a second reading at this session in Bonn.”

Most delegates did not seem surprised that the second round of informal consultations on the legal form of the AWG-LCA’s outcome continued to elicit intractable positions. However, an announcement by a developing country that it was planning to present a fifth protocol proposal aimed at reflecting a broad range of views set the corridors buzzing, and caused quite a ruckus among some developing country delegations. “Where did that come from?” exclaimed one negotiator emerging from a coordination meeting. “I guess the proponents are trying to ensure that a comprehensive legally binding outcome in Copenhagen is not precluded,” said one seasoned negotiator.

Some AWG-KP delegates were in a relatively positive mood, feeling that at least some progress was being made. Others, however, felt that despite more substance being added to the discussions, positions remained polarized. Some were wondering how the new paper, expected on Saturday, calculating a collective emission reduction range based on Annex I parties’ unilateral pledges, would affect the mood. “At least it will be useful to finally see what the numbers look like when the various base years and assumptions are translated into the same language,” opined one delegate after the morning’s meeting on emission reductions.

AWG-KP negotiators in the “other issues” group were also looking to the future. Some hoped that they would start talking substance and narrowing options, after several days of running through the text and ensuring the inclusion of all proposals. “It wasn’t the exciting part, but it had to be done,” one delegate noted, adding, “If you lay a shoddy foundation, the house might crack later.”

Attempts were also made to take some battles outside the negotiating rooms, as well as build bridges between some traditional divides.

SATURDAY, 6 JUNE 2009
Rain and a heavy workload kept delegates inside on Saturday as the first week of negotiations drew to a close. Reflections on the progress made ran the gamut from excitement to frustration.

As mitigation discussions got going in the AWG-LCA in the afternoon, the plenary room filled with observers and senior delegates. “Even though we’re not negotiating yet, I can’t help but be a little excited,” one long-time observer noted. “We’re seeing history - the stone that will become the sculpture is right here in this room.” Some developing country delegates were less sanguine, with one stressing that although all the pillars of the Bali Action Plan are important, discussions on adaptation, finance and technology are still lagging far behind mitigation.

Outside of the plenary, forest discussions continued. While delegates seemed upbeat after the REDD informals on Friday, some were less pleased with Saturday’s deliberations, with one characterizing parts as “rehashing Poznán.” On the whole though, delegates seemed confident that the Co-Chairs would help find a way forward, as many were quick to praise their “remarkably balanced” text on such sensitive issues. Some AWG-KP delegates also gathered over coffee to chat about LULUCF issues. A number of delegates felt the discussions on some issues were “productive,” and had helped to clarify proposals such as the bar approach. “Of course, the hallways are the hallways,” one delegate noted as he finished his espresso, adding “we’ll see what happens when the full group sits down together on Tuesday.”

The week’s intensive schedule took its toll on many delegates. As the plenary hall emptied after the AWG-LCA plenary at the end of the day, some prepared for the NGO party while others struggled to summon the energy to debrief the week’s events with their delegations.

MONDAY, 8 JUNE 2009
As the second week of the meeting began, many delegates were thinking about the organization of work for the remaining days of “Bonn 2″, “Bonn 3″ and beyond. While the AWG-LCA completed the first reading of text related to the first three mitigation paragraphs in the BAP, some grew increasingly skeptical of the prospect of finishing the second reading of the draft negotiating text at Bonn 2 - “I don’t think we’ll finish it here, but what happens if we aren’t even able to finish it during Bonn 3?” wondered one seasoned negotiator. Despite not completing comprehensive discussions of the mitigation text during the first reading, some delegates were glad the second reading of the adaptation chapter would begin on Tuesday. “It’s progress, but until everybody’s words are on paper it’s hard to see where this thing is headed,” one delegate observed.

Indeed, getting those words on paper to meet the deadline for submitting text set by the AWG-LCA Chair for Monday evening was a key activity after-hours at the Maritim: nearly every small meeting room was filled with delegates working into the evening to prepare their textual proposals.

Under the AWG-KP, a long contact group session convened to discuss Annex I further emission reductions, with several hours of further informal discussions on the topic scheduled for Tuesday. Some characterized the atmosphere during Monday’s discussions as “quite congenial,” and parties could be seen looking relaxed and exchanging friendly banter afterwards. “But obviously, there are still no concrete numbers on the table from all parties,” one noted. Some developed country delegates also worried that the flexibility mechanisms were not being given enough attention, while others lamented what they felt was a too narrow mandate for the legal matters group.

Informal consultations were also taking place on the upcoming sessions of the AWG-LCA and other bodies, including the Copenhagen meeting itself. The side-event on COP 15, organized by Denmark during lunchtime, was well-attended.

TUESDAY, 9 JUNE 2009

Sergio Zelaya Bonilla (UNCCD) and Hanna Hoffmann (UNFCCC) offering a smile for the camera

Many delegates spent the bulk of the day in various informal consultations and contact groups, attempting to finish the SB agenda items before the closing plenaries scheduled for Wednesday. While some groups reached agreement on how to conclude their work earlier in the day, other issues required longer consideration. Discussions on issues such as REDD and non-Annex I national communications stretched into the evening. The REDD discussions culminated later in heavily bracketed draft decision text. With so many delegates happy about the first draft of the text, some expressed frustration about the “explosion of brackets at the eleventh hour.”

Informal consultations also continued under the AWG-KP throughout the day. Some delegates emerging from the negotiations introduced a new term into the corridors’ discussions: “esKPees” - which they explained refers to parties that are considering leaving the Kyoto Protocol. “I’m concerned,” sighed a seasoned developing country negotiator, “but we will be continuing discussions under the assumption that the Protocol will survive.” Many were predicting, however, that several long hours of discussions would be needed to bring AWG-KP 8 to a conclusion. “One of the major questions is how to proceed with the texts,” commented one.

Those following the AWG-LCA, in turn, seemed positively surprised by the early end to the informal plenary in the morning. Some commented that the Secretariat had done such a good job of incorporating proposals that very few people had to intervene to note omissions.

WEDNESDAY, 10 JUNE 2009
On Wednesday, the corridors and meeting rooms were once again busy with delegates attempting to complete work under the SBs. Throughout the day, informal consultations were held to finalize outstanding items, such as financial issues and arrangements for intergovernmental meetings. Agreement was eventually reached on all issues - if not in substantive terms, then at least concerning the process forward. Delegates seemed reasonably pleased with many of the outcomes, including the agreement to reconstitute the Consultative Group of Experts on Non-Annex I National Communications. However, the evening ended up being long for those following the SBI, as the closing plenary concluded just before 11 pm.

As the SBs gradually wrapped up, all eyes started shifting towards the AWGs. With textual proposals on mitigation and finance due under the AWG-LCA, the Secretariat was anticipating “another all-nighter” to incorporate the proposals in the draft negotiating text in time for the plenary discussions on Thursday.

While the AWG-KP contact group on other issues was able to wrap up its work and submit text to the AWG-KP Chair, informal consultations on emission reductions continued throughout the day with little progress reported. Some anticipated that “the real battle” over the AWG-KP conclusions was to come over the next two days. “I’m not sure whether there will be a collective decision by the parties to circulate text on proposed amendments to the Protocol - or whether we will end up with several parties submitting their individual amendment proposals,” commented one veteran. “Being a great fan of the Protocol myself, I’m worried about its future,” he added.  “We’ll start Thursday with informal consultations on the AWG-KP conclusions - and that’s when the rubber will really hit the road,” commented another seasoned negotiator on things to come.

THURSDAY, 11 JUNE 2009
Even after the conclusion of the SBs, the corridors of the Maritim remained busy on Thursday. Many commented that it was also “a noisy day” - throughout the morning, a loud “climate alarm” blared from NGO activists outside the hotel. Some delegates were amused and others welcomed the protest as a useful reminder of the seriousness of the issues being discussed. However, some of those working closer to the source of the noise were not so understanding: “I felt it was quite effective - if the aim was to prevent us from concentrating on our work,” one delegate half-joked.

Those following the AWG-LCA seemed already willing to reflect on the session’s achievements and the possible way forward. While some seemed puzzled by the brevity of the second week’s AWG-LCA plenary sessions, others praised the immense amount of important work that went into putting together the text, which has now grown to over 200 pages. “What we did was useful - and going through the text in an informal plenary setting, paragraph by paragraph, would not have been helpful,” said one delegate. He seemed optimistic that what might have seemed like a “short-term loss of time” could be made up for at Bonn 3. “Realistically, not much more could have been expected at this session,” another delegate added.

Outside the plenary, one of the main topics discussed in the corridors was how the AWG-KP would move forward. During the day, the form and content of the AWG-KP 8 conclusions were being worked out in a series of informal consultations with the AWG-KP Chair. For some of those emerging from final informal consultations at around 8 pm, the mood was resigned: “We couldn’t agree on a mandate for the Chair to communicate text on possible Protocol amendments, so it looks like all we’ll be asking him to do is to prepare documentation to facilitate discussions next time,” one delegate reported. “It would have been nice to forward jointly a legal text,” said another, “but it’s a negotiation, and I see why others didn’t want to.” Some were surprised that the evening’s informal AWG-KP meeting ended up being so short. One senior delegate however was happy with the early finish, saying he had been worried about having to pull an all-nighter.

Thanks to IISD Reporting Services for the above coverage. Climatico would also like to express it’s condolences to the delegation of Belarus along with the friends and family of Vladimir Tarasenko who passed away suddenly on Saturday. Tarasenko was the Head of the Delegation for Belarus and will be remembered for his valued contribution toward the UNFCCC negotiating process.